TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.88
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141181210––––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
1141181210––––
H2H Mariusz Baron 17–17 Oliver Vincenec Dead even across their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Vincenec beat Baron 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (53%)
Vincenec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-17 in 34
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1296 vs Vincenec 1352
Vincenec
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 40% vs Vincenec 60%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 30% vs Vincenec 50%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron +1 · Vincenec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vincenec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.88 / Vincenec 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vincenec)+1.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13165997
Baron1.88
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 185 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 249
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Vincenec1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 133 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it86% 60 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it74% 99 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron5wins
AwayVincenec5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron66.7%4 of 6
AwayVincenec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron6Vincenec4n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S2Baron3Vincenec7n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S3Baron7Vincenec3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S4Baron6Vincenec4n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S5Baron2Vincenec4n = 6Vincenec took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronVincenecB − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match47.644.0+3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime871 / 1819 vs 674 / 147547.9%45.7%871 / 1819 vs 674 / 1475Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecBaron 1.88/Vincenec 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 23:05M. Baron551281111132O. Vincenec511011213153
LSep 8 · 14:20M. Baron4941215992O. Vincenec5611101311113
WSep 8 · 06:20M. Baron58991117123O. Vincenec481111115102
LSep 1 · 13:30M. Baron408913101O. Vincenec45111111123
WSep 1 · 07:20M. Baron4011117113O. Vincenec29581151
LAug 28 · 11:30M. Baron45115101182O. Vincenec48511129113
WAug 28 · 07:10M. Baron3812411113O. Vincenec341011491
WAug 17 · 04:40M. Baron45121111113O. Vincenec331031371
LAug 16 · 22:40M. Baron531210111192O. Vincenec49141293113
WJul 10 · 23:20M. Baron53119119133O. Vincenec47511911112
M. Baron10
LSep 21 · 03:30G. Marud1.9011611123M. Baron1.802119101WSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560LSep 21 · 24:20W. Urban1.78111116113M. Baron1.9311571192LSep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.901281111132O. Vincenec1.801011213153LSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113WSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102WSep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.10811811113P. Adamus1.6511711762LSep 20 · 17:30M. Baron2.0981191172P. Kurek1.53115116113LSep 19 · 02:10I. Szymanski3.751111136123M. Baron1.251391111102LSep 19 · 01:25R. Szymik1.571111113M. Baron2.255690
O. Vincenec10
WSep 21 · 03:55O. Vincenec2.151112113P. Kurek1.6371060WSep 21 · 01:30W. Urban1.658112101O. Vincenec1.9111711123LSep 20 · 23:55P. Adamus1.611111115133O. Vincenec2.15139511112WSep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.901281111132O. Vincenec1.801011213153LSep 20 · 21:55O. Vincenec1.901110111152P. Kurek1.75812139113WSep 20 · 20:45G. Marud1.661211781O. Vincenec2.05101311113WSep 20 · 19:30W. Urban1.76111481162O. Vincenec1.95916112113LSep 20 · 17:55P. Adamus1.571112113O. Vincenec2.2591090LSep 18 · 14:40J. Pelka2.00141411113O. Vincenec1.7312121381LSep 18 · 13:30O. Vincenec2.3881381492S. Szostok1.5311111112113
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