TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Oliver Vincenec
Home
2.15
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171210116––––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:22 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
1171210116––––
H2H Oliver Vincenec 10–8 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kurek beat Vincenec 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Vincenec
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1336 vs Kurek 1397
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 40% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 40% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec -1 · Kurek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 2.15 / Kurek 1.63
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kurek)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13165994
Vincenec2.15
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 189 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back23% 65 of 281
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 140
Kurek1.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 214 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it84% 149 of 178
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec5wins
AwayKurek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec60%3 of 5
AwayKurek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S2Vincenec4Kurek6n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S3Vincenec3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Vincenec3Kurek4n = 7Kurek took 4 of 7
S5Vincenec4Kurek1n = 5Vincenec took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecKurekV − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.239.8−3.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime674 / 1476 vs 425 / 84145.7%50.5%674 / 1476 vs 425 / 841Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekVincenec 2.15/Kurek 1.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 21:55O. Vincenec481110111152P. Kurek53812139113
WSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec471111104113P. Kurek4769121192
LSep 9 · 03:50O. Vincenec174850P. Kurek331111113
LSep 3 · 11:50O. Vincenec341111751P. Kurek4161311113
WSep 3 · 03:50O. Vincenec43411116113P. Kurek4111841172
WAug 18 · 08:45O. Vincenec48115912113P. Kurek45911111042
WAug 10 · 09:00O. Vincenec49791111113P. Kurek4511118962
LAug 10 · 04:30O. Vincenec188550P. Kurek331111113
WJul 30 · 14:40O. Vincenec331111113P. Kurek239770
LJul 30 · 06:05O. Vincenec25311741P. Kurek3711411113
O. Vincenec10
LSep 21 · 02:45M. Baron1.881111123O. Vincenec1.6748100WSep 21 · 01:30W. Urban1.658112101O. Vincenec1.9111711123LSep 20 · 23:55P. Adamus1.611111115133O. Vincenec2.15139511112WSep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.901281111132O. Vincenec1.801011213153LSep 20 · 21:55O. Vincenec1.901110111152P. Kurek1.75812139113WSep 20 · 20:45G. Marud1.661211781O. Vincenec2.05101311113WSep 20 · 19:30W. Urban1.76111481162O. Vincenec1.95916112113LSep 20 · 17:55P. Adamus1.571112113O. Vincenec2.2591090LSep 18 · 14:40J. Pelka2.00141411113O. Vincenec1.7312121381LSep 18 · 13:30O. Vincenec2.3881381492S. Szostok1.5311111112113
P. Kurek10
WSep 21 · 04:40W. Urban1.852550P. Kurek1.801111113WSep 21 · 01:55P. Adamus1.87712981P. Kurek1.83111011113LSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560WSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1.7711350P. Kurek1.931311113LSep 20 · 22:40W. Urban2.0081111113P. Kurek1.71118651WSep 20 · 21:55O. Vincenec1.901110111152P. Kurek1.75812139113LSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus1.77111011113P. Kurek1.95712861WSep 20 · 19:10G. Marud1.8611611742P. Kurek1.80911711113WSep 20 · 17:30M. Baron2.0981191172P. Kurek1.53115116113WSep 18 · 08:00P. Kurek2.051111113M. Lebek1.666660
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