TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211511511––––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
45 points played in total.
Set by set
211511511––––
H2H Wojciech Urban 12–11 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Urban beat Kurek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:20What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1348 vs Kurek 1380
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 60% vs Kurek 40%
Urban
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 50% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -1 · Kurek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.85 / Kurek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kurek)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13165992
Urban1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 213 of 519
Down 0–1, comes back19% 55 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back7% 11 of 167
Kurek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 217 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it83% 150 of 180
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban6wins
AwayKurek4wins
Urban leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban100%5 of 5
AwayKurek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S2Urban4Kurek6n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S3Urban5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S4Urban4Kurek0n = 4Urban took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanKurekU − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.032.9+1.1per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime774 / 1642 vs 425 / 84247.1%50.5%774 / 1642 vs 425 / 842Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekUrban 1.85/Kurek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 22:40W. Urban4181111113P. Kurek30118651
LSep 10 · 12:15W. Urban2813960P. Kurek371511113
WSep 10 · 08:35W. Urban44111111113P. Kurek39913891
WAug 30 · 08:45W. Urban331111113P. Kurek237790
LAug 28 · 07:35W. Urban196940P. Kurek331111113
LAug 18 · 21:10W. Urban206770P. Kurek331111113
WAug 4 · 02:45W. Urban48111111153P. Kurek376135131
LAug 3 · 23:05W. Urban2879120P. Kurek361111143
WAug 3 · 02:45W. Urban43111110113P. Kurek32941271
WAug 2 · 23:05W. Urban361312113P. Kurek29111080
W. Urban10
LSep 21 · 03:05P. Adamus1.56111111113W. Urban2.05813471WSep 21 · 02:20G. Marud1.655860W. Urban1.901111113LSep 21 · 01:30W. Urban1.658112101O. Vincenec1.9111711123WSep 21 · 24:20W. Urban1.78111116113M. Baron1.9311571192WSep 20 · 22:40W. Urban2.0081111113P. Kurek1.71118651LSep 20 · 21:05P. Adamus1.661112113W. Urban2.1041060LSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102LSep 20 · 19:30W. Urban1.76111481162O. Vincenec1.95916112113WSep 20 · 18:20W. Urban1.951111113G. Marud1.769460WSep 20 · 08:45W. Urban1.9311711113W. Pytlas1.77911361
P. Kurek10
LSep 21 · 03:55O. Vincenec2.151112113P. Kurek1.6371060WSep 21 · 01:55P. Adamus1.87712981P. Kurek1.83111011113LSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560WSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1.7711350P. Kurek1.931311113LSep 20 · 22:40W. Urban2.0081111113P. Kurek1.71118651WSep 20 · 21:55O. Vincenec1.901110111152P. Kurek1.75812139113LSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus1.77111011113P. Kurek1.95712861WSep 20 · 19:10G. Marud1.8611611742P. Kurek1.80911711113WSep 20 · 17:30M. Baron2.0981191172P. Kurek1.53115116113WSep 18 · 08:00P. Kurek2.051111113M. Lebek1.666660
Upcoming Matches
W. Urban
Nothing scheduled
P. Kurek
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