TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
1.87
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210911811––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
7111210911811––
H2H Pawel Adamus 6–14 Pawel Kurek Pawel Adamus has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Adamus beat Kurek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:24What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Kurek
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1427 vs Kurek 1383
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Kurek 40%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 50% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -1 · Kurek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.87 / Kurek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kurek)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13166002
Adamus1.87
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 90 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Kurek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 214 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it84% 149 of 178
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus2wins
AwayKurek8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus40%2 of 5
AwayKurek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamus5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus2Kurek8n = 10Kurek took 8 of 10
S4Adamus4Kurek4n = 8split evenly
S5Adamus1Kurek5n = 6Kurek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusKurekA − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.243.3−4.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 680 vs 424 / 84055.3%50.5%376 / 680 vs 424 / 840Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekAdamus 1.87/Kurek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus43111011113P. Kurek33712861
LAug 27 · 01:10P. Adamus47101191162P. Kurek49129116113
LJul 17 · 22:35P. Adamus4311751462P. Kurek549111112113
LJul 17 · 15:00P. Adamus3811117632P. Kurek45481111113
LJul 15 · 09:50P. Adamus2681260P. Kurek361114113
LJul 15 · 05:40P. Adamus44101111572P. Kurek47126711113
LJul 1 · 08:35P. Adamus29711561P. Kurek3911611113
WJun 26 · 23:20P. Adamus5511111012113P. Kurek4476121452
LJun 24 · 02:35P. Adamus4911791392P. Kurek539111111113
LJun 11 · 03:35P. Adamus188640P. Kurek331111113
P. Adamus10
LSep 21 · 24:45G. Marud1.85971111113P. Adamus1.8511115932WSep 20 · 23:55P. Adamus1.611111115133O. Vincenec2.15139511112LSep 20 · 22:20P. Adamus1.7551341692G. Marud1.9511111114113WSep 20 · 21:05P. Adamus1.661112113W. Urban2.1041060WSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus1.77111011113P. Kurek1.95712861LSep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.10811811113P. Adamus1.6511711762WSep 20 · 17:55P. Adamus1.571112113O. Vincenec2.2591090LSep 19 · 14:20P. Adamus2.25712651W. Wojtaszczyk1.57111011113WSep 19 · 12:40P. Mecik2.5099100P. Adamus1.501111123LSep 19 · 11:50P. Polok1.53111169113P. Adamus2.3895111172
P. Kurek10
LSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560WSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1.7711350P. Kurek1.931311113LSep 20 · 22:40W. Urban2.0081111113P. Kurek1.71118651WSep 20 · 21:55O. Vincenec1.901110111152P. Kurek1.75812139113LSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus1.77111011113P. Kurek1.95712861WSep 20 · 19:10G. Marud1.8611611742P. Kurek1.80911711113WSep 20 · 17:30M. Baron2.0981191172P. Kurek1.53115116113WSep 18 · 08:00P. Kurek2.051111113M. Lebek1.666660LSep 18 · 06:45P. Kurek1.80871141M. Adamus1.9011119113LSep 18 · 05:35P. Kurek1.668970Y. Fomin2.001111113
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