TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911711115119113
Pawel Adamus
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
911711115119113
H2H Grzegorz Marud 14–12 Pawel Adamus Pawel Adamus has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Marud beat Adamus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:25What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Marud
Correct
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1427 vs Adamus 1439
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 40% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 50% vs Adamus 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Adamus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.85 / Adamus 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamus)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13166007
Marud1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Adamus1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud6wins
AwayAdamus4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud60%6 of 10
AwayAdamusn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud10Adamus0n = 10Marud took 10 of 10
S2Marud5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S3Marud6Adamus4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Marud2Adamus5n = 7Adamus took 5 of 7
S5Marud1Adamus2n = 3Adamus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudAdamusM − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match39.136.1+3.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime650 / 1370 vs 376 / 67947.5%55.4%650 / 1370 vs 376 / 679Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusMarud 1.85/Adamus 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 22:20G. Marud5811111114113P. Adamus4751341692
WSep 16 · 01:00G. Marud361114113P. Adamus2391220
WSep 15 · 18:55G. Marud4011711113P. Adamus32411891
WSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud341112113P. Adamus2261060
WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud4011117113P. Adamus28741161
LAug 31 · 24:20G. Marud36118891P. Adamus4291111113
LAug 30 · 20:20G. Marud4112137542P. Adamus5410111111113
LAug 25 · 03:05G. Marud35118881P. Adamus4291111113
WAug 24 · 21:05G. Marud341211113P. Adamus2410770
LAug 5 · 24:10G. Marud3711411922P. Adamus47611811113
G. Marud10
LSep 21 · 02:20G. Marud1.655860W. Urban1.901111113LSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1.7711350P. Kurek1.931311113WSep 20 · 22:20P. Adamus1.7551341692G. Marud1.9511111114113WSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113LSep 20 · 20:45G. Marud1.661211781O. Vincenec2.05101311113LSep 20 · 19:10G. Marud1.8611611742P. Kurek1.80911711113LSep 20 · 18:20W. Urban1.951111113G. Marud1.769460LSep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7351111123G. Marud2.001188101WSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113WSep 16 · 24:10G. Marud2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.503880
P. Adamus10
LSep 21 · 01:55P. Adamus1.87712981P. Kurek1.83111011113WSep 20 · 23:55P. Adamus1.611111115133O. Vincenec2.15139511112LSep 20 · 22:20P. Adamus1.7551341692G. Marud1.9511111114113WSep 20 · 21:05P. Adamus1.661112113W. Urban2.1041060WSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus1.77111011113P. Kurek1.95712861LSep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.10811811113P. Adamus1.6511711762WSep 20 · 17:55P. Adamus1.571112113O. Vincenec2.2591090LSep 19 · 14:20P. Adamus2.25712651W. Wojtaszczyk1.57111011113WSep 19 · 12:40P. Mecik2.5099100P. Adamus1.501111123LSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113
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