TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
1.47
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11913151181210––
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.21
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:21 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
11913151181210––
H2H Pawel Adamus 18–24 Mariusz Baron Pawel Adamus has won 18 of their 42 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Baron beat Adamus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:21What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (60%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-24 in 42
Baron
Wrong
gap of 6 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1424 vs Baron 1304
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 50% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Baron -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.47 / Baron 2.21
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Adamus)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13165993
Adamus1.47
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 208 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it99% 102 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it79% 159 of 202
Baron2.21
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 189 of 468
Down 0–1, comes back25% 64 of 252
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayBaron6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus28.6%2 of 7
AwayBaron33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus7Baron3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S2Adamus1Baron9n = 10Baron took 9 of 10
S3Adamus4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Adamus5Baron4n = 9Adamus took 5 of 9
S5Adamus3Baron3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusBaronA − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.544.8−1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime377 / 682 vs 872 / 182155.3%47.9%377 / 682 vs 872 / 1821Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.47/Baron 2.21
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 18:45P. Adamus4211711762M. Baron49811811113
WSep 10 · 24:45P. Adamus531171113113M. Baron4851181592
LAug 28 · 15:55P. Adamus6011111511122M. Baron60713179143
LAug 28 · 09:55P. Adamus31118661M. Baron4291111113
LAug 20 · 06:00P. Adamus4611891172M. Baron44511116113
WAug 11 · 16:20P. Adamus514111112133M. Baron531113810112
WAug 11 · 06:45P. Adamus4211119113M. Baron31581171
LJul 19 · 07:10P. Adamus31118841M. Baron4181111113
LJul 14 · 06:45P. Adamus29116120M. Baron381311143
WJul 13 · 01:55P. Adamus50891111113M. Baron4211118482
P. Adamus10
WSep 21 · 03:05P. Adamus1.56111111113W. Urban2.05813471LSep 21 · 01:55P. Adamus1.87712981P. Kurek1.83111011113LSep 21 · 24:45G. Marud1.85971111113P. Adamus1.8511115932WSep 20 · 23:55P. Adamus1.611111115133O. Vincenec2.15139511112LSep 20 · 22:20P. Adamus1.7551341692G. Marud1.9511111114113WSep 20 · 21:05P. Adamus1.661112113W. Urban2.1041060WSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus1.77111011113P. Kurek1.95712861LSep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.10811811113P. Adamus1.6511711762WSep 20 · 17:55P. Adamus1.571112113O. Vincenec2.2591090LSep 19 · 14:20P. Adamus2.25712651W. Wojtaszczyk1.57111011113
M. Baron10
LSep 21 · 03:30G. Marud1.9011611123M. Baron1.802119101WSep 21 · 02:45M. Baron1.881111123O. Vincenec1.6748100WSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560LSep 21 · 24:20W. Urban1.78111116113M. Baron1.9311571192LSep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.901281111132O. Vincenec1.801011213153LSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113WSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102WSep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.10811811113P. Adamus1.6511711762LSep 20 · 17:30M. Baron2.0981191172P. Kurek1.53115116113LSep 19 · 02:10I. Szymanski3.751111136123M. Baron1.251391111102
Upcoming Matches
P. Adamus
Nothing scheduled
M. Baron
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