TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Niemiec vs Michal Skuril 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Rafal Niemiec
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111157111141311
Michal Skuril
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:05 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeRafal Niemiec to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Niemiec above · Michal Skuril below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 90 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Rafal Niemiec at 64.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Niemiec 1–0 Michal Skuril Michal Skuril has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Niemiec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Niemiec 1385 vs Skuril 1286
Niemiec
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niemiec 80% vs Skuril 40%
Niemiec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niemiec 70% vs Skuril 30%
Niemiec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Niemiec +1 · Skuril -3
Skuril
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Niemiec) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niemiec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiemiec 1.67 / Skuril 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Niemiec)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13174382
Niemiec1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 106 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it84% 71 of 85
Skuril2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 10 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNiemiec1wins
AwaySkuril0wins
Niemiec leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNiemiecSkurilN − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match45.037.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiemiecSkurilBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 267 vs 24 / 5661.1%42.9%163 / 267 vs 24 / 56Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiemiecNiemiec 1.67/Skuril 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Niemiec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Niemiec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 22 · 05:40R. Niemiec45111112113M. Skuril37861491
R. Niemiec10
WSep 22 · 08:10R. Niemiec1.6111146113P. Przewlocki2.205121191LSep 22 · 06:30O. Jadach1.611111113R. Niemiec2.208570WSep 22 · 05:40M. Skuril1.91861491R. Niemiec1.80111112113WSep 22 · 04:55R. Niemiec1.911181311113W. Urban1.80131111882WSep 22 · 03:50R. Niemiec2.10117119123P. Brozek1.67611711102LSep 7 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.53119911113R. Niemiec2.3871111982LSep 7 · 13:30P. Przewlocki1.7311134113R. Niemiec2.008111191WSep 7 · 11:25W. Urban1.6795111182R. Niemiec2.10111165113WSep 7 · 10:35M. Adamus1.8013960R. Niemiec1.911511113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek1.806111051R. Niemiec1.9111412113
M. Skuril10
LSep 22 · 08:35M. Skuril2.0041690W. Urban1.731118113LSep 22 · 06:55M. Skuril2.252720P. Brozek1.571111113LSep 22 · 05:40M. Skuril1.91861491R. Niemiec1.80111112113WSep 22 · 04:10M. Skuril2.38118114113O. Jadach1.5391191182WSep 22 · 03:00M. Skuril2.0011119113P. Przewlocki1.73661151LSep 21 · 15:45M. Skuril2.20116881P. Gumulinski1.6181111113LSep 21 · 14:40M. Skuril2.50116881P. Gumulinski1.5081111113WSep 21 · 13:05M. Skuril1.911111123R. Idaczyk1.8098100LSep 21 · 11:50M. Skuril2.108111061J. Pelka1.6711512113LSep 21 · 10:10M. Skuril2.50931171J. Pruszkowski1.5011119113
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