Michal Skuril vs Rafal Niemiec 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite Series

Played Sep 22Finished

Michal Skuril

Home

1.91

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 2

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

8116111412911––

Rafal Niemiec

Away

1.80

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Rafal Niemiec to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingMichal Skuril above · Rafal Niemiec below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 14-12

Set 4 · 9-11

Point 82 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Rafal Niemiec at 54.0%

82 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 12:56

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Niemiec

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Skuril 1334 vs Niemiec 1366

Niemiec

Correct

both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Skuril 60% vs Niemiec 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Skuril 40% vs Niemiec 60%

Niemiec

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Skuril +2 · Niemiec +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skuril) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSkuril 1.91 / Niemiec 1.80

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Skuril)+5.5pp

TT Elite Series · #13169732

Skuril1.91

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog35% won 10 of 29

Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14

Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8

Niemiec1.80

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite63% won 106 of 169

Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56

Up 1–0, closes it84% 71 of 85

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricSkurilNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime24 / 53 vs 161 / 26445.3%61%24 / 53 vs 161 / 264Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Skuril

Skuril 1.91/Niemiec 1.80

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Skuril · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Niemiec won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

M. Skuril10