TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511811119117611
Michal Skuril
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Skuril to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Idaczyk above · Michal Skuril below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Michal Skuril at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 0–1 Michal Skuril Rafal Idaczyk has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:44What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skuril
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1351 vs Skuril 1340
Idaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 40% vs Skuril 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 60% vs Skuril 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk -2 · Skuril -3
Skuril
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skuril)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skuril form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 1.91 / Skuril 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skuril)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13164736
Idaczyk1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 98 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back16% 25 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 107
Skuril1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 10 of 19
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeIdaczyk0wins
AwaySkuril1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSkuril leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricIdaczykSkurilI − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match41.049.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykSkurilBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 944 vs 21 / 4449.8%47.7%470 / 944 vs 21 / 44Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkurilIdaczyk 1.91/Skuril 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skuril · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skuril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 21 · 06:55R. Idaczyk4158111162M. Skuril49111197113
R. Idaczyk10
LSep 21 · 05:40R. Idaczyk1.83810190J. Pelka1.831112213LSep 21 · 04:10R. Idaczyk3.001071181J. Pruszkowski1.3612116113WSep 21 · 03:00R. Idaczyk1.83711125123P. Przewlocki1.831161011102LSep 15 · 08:00A. Ruszkiewicz2.1514914113R. Idaczyk1.6012111291WSep 15 · 07:10W. Urban1.86961241R. Idaczyk1.83111110113WSep 15 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.61151311173J. Nowak2.1513155151WSep 15 · 04:50R. Idaczyk1.491113113J. Kaczmarek2.3431160WSep 15 · 04:00M. Cesarz3.303131121R. Idaczyk1.2611159113LSep 11 · 08:00R. Idaczyk2.353690M. Lebek1.501111113WSep 11 · 06:45R. Idaczyk1.90511118113M. Adamus1.8011981172
M. Skuril10
LSep 21 · 06:05M. Skuril2.2011123482P. Gumulinski1.615101111113LSep 21 · 04:30M. Skuril1.806117111P. Przewlocki1.9111711133LSep 21 · 03:50J. Pelka1.9181111133M. Skuril1.801184111WSep 20 · 14:40M. Skuril1.76114511113W. Buczynski1.9551111692WSep 20 · 13:05M. Skuril1.251111113A. Szurgot3.607490LSep 20 · 11:50M. Skuril3.059930P. Polok1.241111113WSep 20 · 10:10M. Skuril2.05121111113J. Jesiek1.66148371WSep 20 · 09:00M. Skuril3.001814113W. Wojtaszczyk1.33161230WSep 20 · 07:45J. Jesiek1.73104110M. Skuril2.001211133WSep 20 · 06:55A. Szurgot3.506760M. Skuril1.281111113
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