TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oskar Jadach vs Rafal Niemiec 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Oskar Jadach
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115117––––
Rafal Niemiec
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:44 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeOskar Jadach to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOskar Jadach above · Rafal Niemiec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Oskar Jadach at 61.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oskar Jadach 3–2 Rafal Niemiec Rafal Niemiec has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:44What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jadach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadach 1431 vs Niemiec 1373
Jadach
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadach 20% vs Niemiec 60%
Niemiec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadach 30% vs Niemiec 70%
Niemiec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadach +1 · Niemiec +3
Niemiec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jadach) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niemiec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadach 1.61 / Niemiec 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Jadach)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13169644
Jadach1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 334 of 496
Up 2–0, closes it95% 158 of 167
Up 1–0, closes it85% 234 of 274
Niemiec2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJadach3wins
AwayNiemiec2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderJadach leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadach75%3 of 4
AwayNiemiecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadach4Niemiec1n = 5Jadach took 4 of 5
S2Jadach3Niemiec2n = 5Jadach took 3 of 5
S3Jadach2Niemiec3n = 5Niemiec took 3 of 5
S4Jadach3Niemiec1n = 4Jadach took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricJadachNiemiecJ − NBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match37.233.8+3.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadachNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime800 / 1326 vs 162 / 26660.3%60.9%800 / 1326 vs 162 / 266Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadachJadach 1.61/Niemiec 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Jadach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jadach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 22 · 06:30O. Jadach331111113R. Niemiec208570
LSep 4 · 15:30O. Jadach321011471R. Niemiec4012611113
LSep 4 · 09:30O. Jadach4311841192R. Niemiec48911116113
WJul 24 · 13:55O. Jadach4111118113R. Niemiec32871161
WJul 24 · 07:55O. Jadach3711411113R. Niemiec29411861
O. Jadach10
WSep 22 · 05:15O. Jadach1.731111117113P. Przewlocki2.0013651142LSep 22 · 04:10M. Skuril2.38118114113O. Jadach1.5391191182LSep 22 · 03:25O. Jadach1.805111213112W. Urban1.911181411133LSep 21 · 16:20G. Wichowski1.8581111113O. Jadach1.80118691LSep 21 · 15:30P. Ostachowski5.0611711113O. Jadach1.13511951WSep 21 · 14:45O. Jadach1.351111113J. Kaczmarek3.009870WSep 21 · 13:10O. Jadach1.371511411143W. Tobiasz2.90176118122LSep 21 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.9181914113O. Jadach1.8011171231LSep 21 · 11:05O. Jadach1.455580J. Kaczmarek2.451111113LSep 21 · 09:30O. Jadach—9980P. Ostachowski—1111113
R. Niemiec10
WSep 22 · 05:40M. Skuril1.91861491R. Niemiec1.80111112113WSep 22 · 04:55R. Niemiec1.911181311113W. Urban1.80131111882WSep 22 · 03:50R. Niemiec2.10117119123P. Brozek1.67611711102LSep 7 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.53119911113R. Niemiec2.3871111982LSep 7 · 13:30P. Przewlocki1.7311134113R. Niemiec2.008111191WSep 7 · 11:25W. Urban1.6795111182R. Niemiec2.10111165113WSep 7 · 10:35M. Adamus1.8013960R. Niemiec1.911511113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek1.806111051R. Niemiec1.9111412113LSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192WSep 7 · 07:20P. Przewlocki1.5311961182R. Niemiec2.38911115113
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