TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Brozek vs Rafal Niemiec 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Piotr Brozek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210611117711911
Rafal Niemiec
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:54 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timePiotr Brozek to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Brozek above · Rafal Niemiec below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Piotr Brozek at 57.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Brozek 0–1 Rafal Niemiec Piotr Brozek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Brozek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1504 vs Niemiec 1394
Brozek
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 100% vs Niemiec 60%
Brozek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 90% vs Niemiec 60%
Brozek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +6 · Niemiec -1
Brozek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Brozek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 1.80 / Niemiec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Brozek)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13174492
Brozek1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 53 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it82% 40 of 49
Niemiec1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBrozek0wins
AwayNiemiec1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderNiemiec leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBrozekNiemiecB − NBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match45.050.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 177 vs 164 / 26955.9%61%99 / 177 vs 164 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBrozek 1.80/Niemiec 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Niemiec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 22 · 03:50P. Brozek45611711102R. Niemiec50117119123
P. Brozek10
WSep 22 · 10:10P. Brozek2.001011116123O. Jadach1.73128911102WSep 22 · 09:00P. Brozek1.6112711113P. Przewlocki2.201011971WSep 22 · 07:45O. Jadach1.73811100P. Brozek2.001113123WSep 22 · 06:55M. Skuril2.252720P. Brozek1.571111113WSep 22 · 06:05P. Brozek1.611114113W. Urban2.2061210WSep 22 · 04:30P. Brozek1.6771111113P. Przewlocki2.10115961LSep 22 · 03:50R. Niemiec2.10117119123P. Brozek1.67611711102WSep 11 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.7167140P. Brozek2.001111163WSep 11 · 01:10M. Lebek1.7410670P. Brozek1.911211113WSep 11 · 24:25P. Brozek1.57871112113J. Nowak2.20111181072
R. Niemiec10
LSep 22 · 11:00R. Niemiec1.8391111882W. Urban1.83117911113WSep 22 · 09:50R. Niemiec1.67611711133M. Skuril2.10115114112WSep 22 · 08:10R. Niemiec1.6111146113P. Przewlocki2.205121191LSep 22 · 06:30O. Jadach1.611111113R. Niemiec2.208570WSep 22 · 05:40M. Skuril1.91861491R. Niemiec1.80111112113WSep 22 · 04:55R. Niemiec1.911181311113W. Urban1.80131111882WSep 22 · 03:50R. Niemiec2.10117119123P. Brozek1.67611711102LSep 7 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.53119911113R. Niemiec2.3871111982LSep 7 · 13:30P. Przewlocki1.7311134113R. Niemiec2.008111191WSep 7 · 11:25W. Urban1.6795111182R. Niemiec2.10111165113
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