TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112116119––––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:21 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 50 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 63.2%
50 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 1–4 Jacek Zelezik Mateusz Baran has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zelezik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Zelezik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1360 vs Zelezik 1499
Zelezik
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 20% vs Zelezik 60%
Zelezik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 30% vs Zelezik 60%
Zelezik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -3 · Zelezik +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.38 / Zelezik 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Zelezik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13168376
Baran2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Zelezik1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 186 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it96% 107 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it81% 143 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBaran1wins
AwayZelezik4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderZelezik leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaran0%0 of 3
AwayZelezikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran3Zelezik2n = 5Baran took 3 of 5
S2Baran1Zelezik4n = 5Zelezik took 4 of 5
S3Baran2Zelezik3n = 5Zelezik took 3 of 5
S4Baran1Zelezik3n = 4Zelezik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricBaranZelezikB − ZBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match35.838.6−2.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 152 vs 386 / 71253.3%54.2%81 / 152 vs 386 / 712Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikBaran 2.38/Zelezik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 31 · 22:50M. Baran34115991J. Zelezik3741111113
LAug 31 · 14:10M. Baran4311811762J. Zelezik45911311113
LAug 26 · 03:05M. Baran28117371J. Zelezik4181111113
LAug 25 · 21:05M. Baran3115880J. Zelezik391711113
WJul 20 · 18:30M. Baran43101111113J. Zelezik31125681
M. Baran10
LSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 18 · 02:35M. Baran1.91961281K. Gudzik1.80111110113LSep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.751010111252M. Guzik1.251212710113WSep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.20117116113Z. Nocun1.6171171152LSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143WSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771LSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran3.25515971K. Gudzik1.33111311113LSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153
J. Zelezik10
LSep 21 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski2.50111164123J. Zelezik1.50941111102WSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1013117572J. Zelezik1.671151111113WSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113WSep 18 · 03:55A. Staniczek3.305850J. Zelezik1.211111113LSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 18 · 01:10J. Michalik2.44611126143J. Zelezik1.451151011122LSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970LSep 17 · 22:40A. Krezel1.8571111113J. Zelezik1.80115551WSep 17 · 21:55A. Staniczek3.3028100J. Zelezik1.261111123WSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran
Sep 21 · 18:55M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 21 · 19:40M. Baran2.38K. Kwiatkowski1.53—Sep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.10J. Zelezik1.67—Sep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38K. Kwiatkowski1.53—Sep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.75A. Zmijewski1.40—Sep 22 · 24:30M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.67M. Karpiuk2.10—Sep 22 · 17:30M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 19:10M. Baran—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 19:55M. Baran—K. Kwiatkowski——
J. Zelezik
Sep 21 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.33M. Karpiuk3.25—Sep 21 · 20:05J. Zelezik1.80A. Zmijewski1.91—Sep 21 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.67M. Baran2.10—Sep 21 · 22:30J. Zelezik1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 21 · 23:10J. Zelezik1.53K. Kwiatkowski2.38—Sep 22 · 24:50J. Zelezik1.33M. Karpiuk3.25—Sep 22 · 01:30J. Zelezik1.80A. Zmijewski1.91—
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