TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Artur Zmijewski
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117113––––
Mateusz Baran
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:56 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 51 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 56.7%
51 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 1–1 Mateusz Baran Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:56What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1463 vs Baran 1370
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 40% vs Baran 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 60% vs Baran 40%
Zmijewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski -1 · Baran -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.53 / Baran 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Zmijewski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13165484
Zmijewski1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 65 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Baran2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeZmijewski1wins
AwayBaran1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricZmijewskiBaranZ − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match36.036.00.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 150 vs 81 / 15159.3%53.6%89 / 150 vs 81 / 151Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiZmijewski 1.53/Baran 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 10 · 02:10A. Zmijewski311110100M. Baran371312123
WSep 9 · 20:05A. Zmijewski4111115143M. Baran355711121
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251LSep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.405128111J. Skorupa2.75111011133WSep 21 · 24:35K. Rybak9.007190A. Zmijewski1.041111113LSep 20 · 23:45Z. Nocun2.25127115113A. Zmijewski1.57101181172WSep 20 · 22:55A. Zmijewski1.3611136173G. Mucha3.0071111151LSep 20 · 21:45A. Zmijewski2.7511771342M. Guzik1.407111111113WSep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.501111123J. Skorupa2.5067100WSep 20 · 18:30K. Rybak5.003640A. Zmijewski1.141111113LSep 20 · 17:45M. Guzik1.4071112113A. Zmijewski2.751171061WSep 20 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.441111113G. Mucha2.633790
M. Baran10
WSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690LSep 18 · 02:35M. Baran1.91961281K. Gudzik1.80111110113LSep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.751010111252M. Guzik1.251212710113WSep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.20117116113Z. Nocun1.6171171152LSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143WSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771LSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran3.25515971K. Gudzik1.33111311113LSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153
Upcoming Matches
A. Zmijewski
Sep 21 · 17:45A. Zmijewski1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 21 · 18:30A. Zmijewski1.61K. Kwiatkowski2.20—Sep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.91J. Zelezik1.80—Sep 21 · 21:45A. Zmijewski1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 21 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.25M. Karpiuk3.75—Sep 21 · 23:30A. Zmijewski1.40M. Baran2.75—Sep 22 · 24:10A. Zmijewski1.61K. Kwiatkowski2.20—Sep 22 · 01:30A. Zmijewski1.91J. Zelezik1.80—
M. Baran
Sep 21 · 18:10M. Baran1.67M. Karpiuk2.10—Sep 21 · 18:55M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 21 · 19:40M. Baran2.38K. Kwiatkowski1.53—Sep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.10J. Zelezik1.67—Sep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38K. Kwiatkowski1.53—Sep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.75A. Zmijewski1.40—Sep 22 · 24:30M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.67M. Karpiuk2.10—Sep 22 · 17:30M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 19:10M. Baran—P. Gesiarz——
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