TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141159
Played Sep 17Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12104119111214––
Marian Brunner
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Marian Brunner below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 83 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 3–2 Marian Brunner Marian Brunner has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Baran beat Brunner 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:42What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1394 vs Brunner 1256
Baran
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Brunner 0%
Baran
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 60% vs Brunner 30%
Baran
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +2 · Brunner -5
Brunner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brunner form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.53 / Brunner 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Baran)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13141159
Baran1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 45 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36
Brunner2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 47 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBaran3wins
AwayBrunner2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderBaran leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarann = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayBrunner40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran0Brunner5n = 5Brunner took 5 of 5
S2Baran4Brunner1n = 5Baran took 4 of 5
S3Baran3Brunner2n = 5Baran took 3 of 5
S4Baran2Brunner2n = 4split evenly
S5Baran2Brunner1n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricBaranBrunnerBaran − BrunnerBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match42.643.2−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranBrunnerBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 147 vs 284 / 57754.4%49.2%80 / 147 vs 284 / 577Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranBaran 1.53/Brunner 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brunner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 17 · 19:40M. Baran48811117113M. Brunner4511891162
WSep 16 · 01:10M. Baran4181111113M. Brunner28115661
LSep 15 · 17:30M. Baran2791080M. Brunner341112113
LAug 26 · 24:20M. Baran4871761172M. Brunner571115119113
WAug 25 · 20:20M. Baran491112141113M. Brunner521310121162
M. Baran10
WSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771LSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran1.73515971K. Gudzik2.00111311113LSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153WSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.531171161M. Baran2.3881113113WSep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.2071191292M. Baran1.611161110113LSep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.208711101A. Fomin1.6111119123WSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113WSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113
M. Brunner10
LSep 17 · 21:20M. Brunner2.38101111482K. Gudzik1.53128911113LSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:30M. Brunner2.637740Z. Nocun1.441111113LSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113LSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240LSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113WSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113WSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113WSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561LSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113
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