TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145679
Played Sep 17Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012118119411811
Krystian Gudzik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrystian Gudzik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Brunner above · Krystian Gudzik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Krystian Gudzik at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Marian Brunner 2–1 Krystian Gudzik Krystian Gudzik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Gudzik beat Brunner 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gudzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1271 vs Gudzik 1407
Gudzik
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 0% vs Gudzik 60%
Gudzik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 30% vs Gudzik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner -5 · Gudzik -1
Brunner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Gudzik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brunner form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 2.38 / Gudzik 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Gudzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13145679
Brunner2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 47 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Gudzik1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 36 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it80% 28 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBrunner2wins
AwayGudzik1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBrunner leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brunner2Gudzik1n = 3Brunner took 2 of 3
S2Brunner3Gudzik0n = 3Brunner took 3 of 3
S3Brunner1Gudzik2n = 3Gudzik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBrunnerGudzikB − GBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.033.0+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerGudzikBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 576 vs 64 / 12549.3%51.2%284 / 576 vs 64 / 125Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GudzikBrunner 2.38/Gudzik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Gudzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gudzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner33811681K. Gudzik3911611113
WSep 2 · 04:20M. Brunner45111175113K. Gudzik3775111132
WSep 1 · 23:05M. Brunner361411113K. Gudzik2312740
M. Brunner10
WSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143LSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:30M. Brunner2.637740Z. Nocun1.441111113LSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113LSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240LSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113WSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113WSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113WSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561LSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113
K. Gudzik10
LSep 17 · 20:30M. Guzik1.28411114113K. Gudzik3.5011851182WSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.91131111113G. Mucha1.801151381WSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran1.73515971K. Gudzik2.00111311113LSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.731111614113K. Gudzik2.0035111682WSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113LSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760WSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Gudzik2.6311013642J. Zelezik1.445111111113LSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.801011791G. Mucha1.9112611113LSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241
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