TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210711118511117
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Artur Zmijewski below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 93 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 60.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 2–5 Artur Zmijewski Zbigniew Nocun has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Zmijewski beat Nocun 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zmijewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Zmijewski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1419 vs Zmijewski 1510
Zmijewski
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Zmijewski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 60% vs Zmijewski 80%
Zmijewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +1 · Zmijewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 2.25 / Zmijewski 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Zmijewski)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13164652
Nocun2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 71 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Zmijewski1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite66% won 59 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeNocun2wins
AwayZmijewski5wins
3 of 7 to a deciderZmijewski leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocunn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZmijewski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun2Zmijewski5n = 7Zmijewski took 5 of 7
S2Nocun3Zmijewski4n = 7Zmijewski took 4 of 7
S3Nocun4Zmijewski3n = 7Nocun took 4 of 7
S4Nocun4Zmijewski2n = 6Nocun took 4 of 6
S5Nocun0Zmijewski3n = 3Zmijewski took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricNocunZmijewskiN − ZBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match39.441.4−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime684 / 1146 vs 88 / 14759.7%59.9%684 / 1146 vs 88 / 147Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiNocun 2.25/Zmijewski 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 20 · 15:50Z. Nocun3831111672A. Zmijewski47116811113
WAug 31 · 24:35Z. Nocun43111011113A. Zmijewski29412581
LAug 30 · 18:30Z. Nocun4911991192A. Zmijewski48711118113
LAug 28 · 01:45Z. Nocun279990A. Zmijewski331111113
LAug 27 · 16:15Z. Nocun30571171A. Zmijewski4011117113
WAug 6 · 24:10Z. Nocun46111212113A. Zmijewski4213101091
LAug 5 · 20:30Z. Nocun43214611102A. Zmijewski511112115123
Z. Nocun10
WSep 20 · 22:10Z. Nocun1.2241412113K. Rybak4.0011121081LSep 20 · 21:00Z. Nocun1.61812111492J. Skorupa2.201110816113WSep 20 · 19:40K. Rybak3.75511471Z. Nocun1.2511811113LSep 20 · 18:55M. Guzik1.201111113Z. Nocun4.337440WSep 20 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.6711115113G. Mucha2.10981191WSep 20 · 16:35Z. Nocun1.61111111113J. Skorupa2.20513551LSep 20 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.57116811113Z. Nocun2.2531111672WSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5713115113G. Mucha2.251171181WSep 18 · 24:35M. Brunner2.7596131152Z. Nocun1.401111116113LSep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.20117116113Z. Nocun1.6171171152
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 21 · 24:35K. Rybak9.007190A. Zmijewski1.041111113WSep 20 · 22:55A. Zmijewski1.3611136173G. Mucha3.0071111151LSep 20 · 21:45A. Zmijewski2.7511771342M. Guzik1.407111111113WSep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.501111123J. Skorupa2.5067100WSep 20 · 18:30K. Rybak5.003640A. Zmijewski1.141111113LSep 20 · 17:45M. Guzik1.4071112113A. Zmijewski2.751171061WSep 20 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.441111113G. Mucha2.633790WSep 20 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.57116811113Z. Nocun2.2531111672WSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 01:35A. Staniczek3.251091171A. Zmijewski1.3012119113
Upcoming Matches
Z. Nocun
A. Zmijewski
Sep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.40J. Skorupa2.75—Sep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski—M. Baran——Sep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 21 · 17:45A. Zmijewski—M. Lewczuk——Sep 21 · 18:30A. Zmijewski—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski—J. Zelezik——Sep 21 · 21:45A. Zmijewski—M. Lewczuk——Sep 21 · 22:50A. Zmijewski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 21 · 23:30A. Zmijewski—M. Baran——Sep 22 · 24:10A. Zmijewski—K. Kwiatkowski——
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