TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118411711––
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:55 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKazimierz Rybak above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 68.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 7–28 Zbigniew Nocun Kazimierz Rybak has won 7 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:55What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-28 in 35
Nocun
Correct
gap of 21 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1006 vs Nocun 1417
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 410 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 0% vs Nocun 60%
Nocun
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 10% vs Nocun 40%
Nocun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak -6 · Nocun -1
Rybak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 3.75 / Nocun 1.25
Signal prob.22% / 79%
Edge (Nocun)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13163754
Rybak3.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog20% won 53 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back8% 14 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 109
Nocun1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 323 of 490
Up 2–0, closes it94% 158 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it85% 235 of 278
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRybak2wins
AwayNocun8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybak25%2 of 8
AwayNocunn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak8Nocun2n = 10Rybak took 8 of 10
S2Rybak1Nocun9n = 10Nocun took 9 of 10
S3Rybak4Nocun6n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S4Rybak1Nocun8n = 9Nocun took 8 of 9
S5Rybak2Nocun3n = 5Nocun took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRybakNocunR − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.643.4−5.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 517 vs 682 / 114323%59.7%119 / 517 vs 682 / 1143Avg sets wonper match1.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match32.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunRybak 3.75/Nocun 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.5%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 04:40K. Rybak4411711962Z. Nocun47811611113
LSep 16 · 22:40K. Rybak341149101Z. Nocun4171111123
LAug 18 · 23:55K. Rybak44115111072Z. Nocun50911712113
LAug 18 · 17:55K. Rybak357101171Z. Nocun4311129113
LAug 14 · 01:45K. Rybak3911561162Z. Nocun51911119113
LAug 13 · 16:15K. Rybak199460Z. Nocun331111113
WAug 12 · 03:55K. Rybak48111286113Z. Nocun47810111172
LAug 11 · 21:55K. Rybak29114861Z. Nocun3741111113
WAug 7 · 01:10K. Rybak49119117113Z. Nocun4351171192
LAug 6 · 16:15K. Rybak35118881Z. Nocun4291111113
K. Rybak10
LSep 20 · 18:30K. Rybak5.003640A. Zmijewski1.141111113LSep 20 · 17:20K. Rybak3.507690J. Skorupa1.281111113LSep 20 · 16:15M. Guzik1.061111113K. Rybak8.004250LSep 20 · 15:25K. Rybak4.50811101192G. Mucha1.17119127113LSep 17 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.12811611113K. Rybak4.8511711962LSep 17 · 03:55A. Staniczek1.391121411113K. Rybak2.6541116892WSep 17 · 01:55W. Stechly1.845560K. Rybak1.791111113LSep 17 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.2761111113K. Rybak3.43114481LSep 16 · 23:30A. Krezel1.262011113K. Rybak3.2518550LSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.1271111123K. Rybak4.851149101
Z. Nocun10
LSep 20 · 18:55M. Guzik1.201111113Z. Nocun4.337440WSep 20 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.6711115113G. Mucha2.10981191WSep 20 · 16:35Z. Nocun1.61111111113J. Skorupa2.20513551LSep 20 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.57116811113Z. Nocun2.2531111672WSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5713115113G. Mucha2.251171181WSep 18 · 24:35M. Brunner2.7596131152Z. Nocun1.401111116113LSep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.20117116113Z. Nocun1.6171171152LSep 17 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.83681151K. Gudzik1.8311116113WSep 17 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.12811611113K. Rybak4.8511711962WSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.1271111123K. Rybak4.851149101
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