TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145706
Played Sep 17Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611811116511––
Krystian Gudzik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:35 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Krystian Gudzik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 56.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 7–8 Krystian Gudzik Zbigniew Nocun has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nocun beat Gudzik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:35What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gudzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1437 vs Gudzik 1420
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 40% vs Gudzik 60%
Gudzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 40% vs Gudzik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -2 · Gudzik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.83 / Gudzik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nocun)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13145706
Nocun1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Gudzik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun6wins
AwayGudzik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%3 of 3
AwayGudzik57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun3Gudzik7n = 10Gudzik took 7 of 10
S2Nocun7Gudzik3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Nocun6Gudzik4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S4Nocun2Gudzik7n = 9Gudzik took 7 of 9
S5Nocun4Gudzik0n = 4Nocun took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunGudzikN − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.439.8+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunGudzikBasisWin rate · lifetime677 / 1133 vs 65 / 12659.8%51.6%677 / 1133 vs 65 / 126Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.83/Gudzik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gudzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun531111614113K. Gudzik4335111682
WSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun4181111113K. Gudzik25118241
LSep 14 · 17:45Z. Nocun314111151K. Gudzik4311138113
WSep 10 · 21:45Z. Nocun48132126153K. Gudzik5611111011132
LSep 10 · 17:45Z. Nocun29611571K. Gudzik4011711113
WSep 10 · 01:30Z. Nocun51911911113K. Gudzik4111311792
WSep 9 · 19:30Z. Nocun46311127133K. Gudzik511181011112
WSep 3 · 02:20Z. Nocun341112113K. Gudzik2041060
LSep 2 · 18:20Z. Nocun33611971K. Gudzik3911611113
LAug 27 · 24:35Z. Nocun38991191K. Gudzik4011117113
Z. Nocun10
LSep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.20117116113Z. Nocun1.6171171152LSep 17 · 21:45Z. Nocun4.0071490M. Guzik1.221116113LSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.53123711122G. Mucha2.381011119143WSep 17 · 18:30M. Brunner2.637740Z. Nocun1.441111113LSep 17 · 17:45M. Guzik1.221111113Z. Nocun4.005720WSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.731111614113K. Gudzik2.0035111682LSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.531171161M. Baran2.3881113113WSep 17 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.12811611113K. Rybak4.8511711962LSep 17 · 03:05W. Stechly5.051011711113Z. Nocun1.1112111772LSep 17 · 02:20A. Krezel2.60981111113Z. Nocun1.4011114642
K. Gudzik10
WSep 17 · 21:20M. Brunner2.38101111482K. Gudzik1.53128911113WSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.91131111113G. Mucha1.801151381WSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran1.73515971K. Gudzik2.00111311113LSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.731111614113K. Gudzik2.0035111682WSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113LSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760WSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Gudzik2.6311013642J. Zelezik1.445111111113LSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.801011791G. Mucha1.9112611113LSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.