TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141158
Played Sep 17Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117711117611115
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:41 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 60.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 3–4 Zbigniew Nocun Mateusz Baran has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Baran beat Nocun 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:41What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1378 vs Nocun 1434
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Nocun 20%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 50% vs Nocun 30%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -1 · Nocun -3
Nocun
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.20 / Nocun 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Nocun)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13141158
Baran2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 25 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Nocun1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 325 of 492
Up 2–0, closes it93% 156 of 167
Up 1–0, closes it85% 234 of 275
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBaran3wins
AwayNocun4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderNocun leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaran33.3%1 of 3
AwayNocun50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran3Nocun4n = 7Nocun took 4 of 7
S2Baran2Nocun5n = 7Nocun took 5 of 7
S3Baran1Nocun6n = 7Nocun took 6 of 7
S4Baran4Nocun1n = 5Baran took 4 of 5
S5Baran2Nocun1n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricBaranNocunB − NBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match37.141.6−4.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 148 vs 677 / 113454.1%59.7%80 / 148 vs 677 / 1134Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunBaran 2.20/Nocun 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 17 · 15:50M. Baran4381113113Z. Nocun351171161
LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran176560Z. Nocun331111113
WSep 10 · 15:50M. Baran48117811113Z. Nocun4481111862
LAug 6 · 21:45M. Baran173770Z. Nocun331111113
LAug 6 · 17:45M. Baran311155101Z. Nocun4171111123
LAug 2 · 23:45M. Baran52126141192Z. Nocun571011169113
WAug 2 · 15:50M. Baran521011911113Z. Nocun4812811982
M. Baran10
LSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143WSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771LSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran1.73515971K. Gudzik2.00111311113LSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153WSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.531171161M. Baran2.3881113113WSep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.2071191292M. Baran1.611161110113LSep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.208711101A. Fomin1.6111119123WSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113
Z. Nocun10
LSep 17 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.83681151K. Gudzik1.8311116113LSep 17 · 21:45Z. Nocun4.0071490M. Guzik1.221116113LSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.53123711122G. Mucha2.381011119143WSep 17 · 18:30M. Brunner2.637740Z. Nocun1.441111113LSep 17 · 17:45M. Guzik1.221111113Z. Nocun4.005720WSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.731111614113K. Gudzik2.0035111682LSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.531171161M. Baran2.3881113113WSep 17 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.12811611113K. Rybak4.8511711962LSep 17 · 03:05W. Stechly5.051011711113Z. Nocun1.1112111772LSep 17 · 02:20A. Krezel2.60981111113Z. Nocun1.4011114642
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