TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.06
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114112115––––
Kazimierz Rybak
Away
8.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:08 and never touched — 83.7% is still 83.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
83.7%
83.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Kazimierz Rybak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 44 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Michal Guzik at 83.7%
44 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 8–0 Kazimierz Rybak Kazimierz Rybak has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-0 in 8
Guzik
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1640 vs Rybak 1017
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 623 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 80% vs Rybak 20%
Guzik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 90% vs Rybak 10%
Guzik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +3 · Rybak -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 84% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (80%) is below what odds imply (94%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.06 / Rybak 8.00
Signal prob.90% / 10%
Edge (Guzik)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13162343
Guzik1.06
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite76% won 146 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it98% 86 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it90% 108 of 120
Rybak8.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog20% won 53 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back8% 14 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGuzik8wins
AwayRybak0wins
4 of 8 to a deciderGuzik leads 8–0, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik100%5 of 5
AwayRybak0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik5Rybak3n = 8Guzik took 5 of 8
S2Guzik5Rybak3n = 8Guzik took 5 of 8
S3Guzik5Rybak3n = 8Guzik took 5 of 8
S4Guzik5Rybak2n = 7Guzik took 5 of 7
S5Guzik4Rybak0n = 4Guzik took 4 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home450%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricGuzikRybakG − RBasisWins80+8in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match43.935.1+8.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikRybakBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 211 vs 119 / 51473.9%23.2%156 / 211 vs 119 / 514Avg sets wonper match2.51.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.833.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.06/Rybak 8.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.9%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 13 · 21:45M. Guzik49118118113K. Rybak4011181192
WSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik537111311113K. Rybak4611815482
WAug 6 · 21:20M. Guzik3911611113K. Rybak27611461
WAug 6 · 15:25M. Guzik331111113K. Rybak164750
WAug 3 · 01:25M. Guzik50613119113K. Rybak47111181162
WAug 2 · 19:20M. Guzik4011711113K. Rybak33611881
WJul 17 · 01:00M. Guzik4011117113K. Rybak22341141
WJul 16 · 18:55M. Guzik47511713113K. Rybak50119111182
M. Guzik10
WSep 20 · 15:00M. Guzik1.201111113J. Skorupa4.339930WSep 20 · 02:00A. Kubiak3.00561171M. Guzik1.2611119113WSep 20 · 01:10A. Fomin2.40111159102M. Guzik1.50861111123LSep 20 · 24:25M. Guzik1.604390H. Tkaczyk2.201111113WSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik1.2711311113J. Skorupa3.30811351WSep 19 · 22:00D. Pyrek3.605560M. Guzik1.181111113WSep 19 · 20:45M. Guzik1.681111113H. Tkaczyk2.056990WSep 19 · 19:10M. Guzik1.541111113A. Fomin2.259560WSep 19 · 18:00M. Guzik1.251112113D. Pyrek3.6081050WSep 19 · 16:25M. Guzik1.331111113A. Kubiak2.956550
K. Rybak10
LSep 20 · 15:25K. Rybak4.50811101192G. Mucha1.17119127113LSep 17 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.12811611113K. Rybak4.8511711962LSep 17 · 03:55A. Staniczek1.391121411113K. Rybak2.6541116892WSep 17 · 01:55W. Stechly1.845560K. Rybak1.791111113LSep 17 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.2761111113K. Rybak3.43114481LSep 16 · 23:30A. Krezel1.262011113K. Rybak3.2518550LSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.1271111123K. Rybak4.851149101LSep 16 · 21:55A. Staniczek1.41119414113K. Rybak2.60911111252LSep 16 · 19:55J. Slawomir1.1511711113K. Rybak4.35811771LSep 16 · 19:10A. Krezel1.26119911113K. Rybak3.2551111562
Upcoming Matches
M. Guzik
Sep 20 · 17:45M. Guzik1.40A. Zmijewski2.75—Sep 20 · 18:55M. Guzik1.13Z. Nocun5.50—Sep 20 · 20:30M. Guzik1.17G. Mucha4.50—Sep 20 · 21:45M. Guzik1.40A. Zmijewski2.75—Sep 20 · 22:35M. Guzik1.20J. Skorupa4.33—Sep 21 · 24:10M. Guzik1.20G. Mucha4.33—Sep 21 · 01:00M. Guzik1.13Z. Nocun5.50—Sep 21 · 01:45M. Guzik1.06K. Rybak8.00—
K. Rybak
Sep 20 · 17:20K. Rybak3.50J. Skorupa1.28—Sep 20 · 18:30K. Rybak5.00A. Zmijewski1.14—Sep 20 · 19:40K. Rybak3.75Z. Nocun1.25—Sep 20 · 21:20K. Rybak4.50G. Mucha1.17—Sep 20 · 22:10K. Rybak3.75Z. Nocun1.25—Sep 20 · 23:20K. Rybak3.50J. Skorupa1.28—Sep 21 · 24:35K. Rybak—A. Zmijewski——Sep 21 · 01:45K. Rybak8.00M. Guzik1.06—
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