TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159428
Played Sep 20Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 17Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 17
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411311911––––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:00 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
49 points played in total.
Set by set
411311911––––
H2H Michal Guzik 4–9 Henryk Tkaczyk Michal Guzik has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Guzik beat Tkaczyk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:00What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1638 vs Tkaczyk 1623
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 100% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Guzik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 100% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Guzik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +17 · Tkaczyk +2
Guzik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.60 / Tkaczyk 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Guzik)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13159428
Guzik1.60
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 17
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite75% won 137 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it98% 80 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it89% 101 of 113
Tkaczyk2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 60 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back33% 17 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuzik4wins
AwayTkaczyk6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik75%3 of 4
AwayTkaczyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Guzik3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Guzik5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Guzik4Tkaczyk2n = 6Guzik took 4 of 6
S5Guzik2Tkaczyk3n = 5Tkaczyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuzikTkaczykG − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.938.7−1.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 207 vs 1017 / 151373.9%67.2%153 / 207 vs 1017 / 1513Avg sets wonper match2.62.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.60/Tkaczyk 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.8%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 20:45M. Guzik331111113H. Tkaczyk246990
LSep 11 · 03:05M. Guzik4911913792H. Tkaczyk539111111113
LSep 10 · 21:05M. Guzik46115111182H. Tkaczyk50131169113
LSep 4 · 24:10M. Guzik43311811102H. Tkaczyk48116118123
LSep 3 · 20:30M. Guzik2231180H. Tkaczyk351113113
WAug 28 · 02:10M. Guzik43115115113H. Tkaczyk4151191152
LAug 27 · 20:05M. Guzik25105100H. Tkaczyk351211123
WAug 21 · 02:35M. Guzik48811711113H. Tkaczyk3711511552
WAug 20 · 18:10M. Guzik4111811113H. Tkaczyk31711671
LAug 4 · 02:20M. Guzik195680H. Tkaczyk331111113
M. Guzik10
WSep 20 · 01:10A. Fomin2.40111159102M. Guzik1.50861111123WSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik1.2711311113J. Skorupa3.30811351WSep 19 · 22:00D. Pyrek3.605560M. Guzik1.181111113WSep 19 · 20:45M. Guzik1.681111113H. Tkaczyk2.056990WSep 19 · 19:10M. Guzik1.541111113A. Fomin2.259560WSep 19 · 18:00M. Guzik1.251112113D. Pyrek3.6081050WSep 19 · 16:25M. Guzik1.331111113A. Kubiak2.956550WSep 19 · 15:10M. Guzik1.2141111113J. Skorupa3.35116441WSep 18 · 01:45M. Brunner7.004760M. Guzik1.081111113WSep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.751010111252M. Guzik1.251212710113
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 20 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk1.40126761J. Skorupa2.75101111113WSep 19 · 23:10D. Pyrek2.956370H. Tkaczyk1.361111113WSep 19 · 21:35A. Kubiak2.501071161H. Tkaczyk1.4612117113LSep 19 · 20:45M. Guzik1.681111113H. Tkaczyk2.056990WSep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk1.4211112113J. Skorupa2.558111091WSep 19 · 18:25A. Fomin1.9511137692H. Tkaczyk1.749111111113WSep 19 · 17:10D. Pyrek2.90114761H. Tkaczyk1.3561111113WSep 19 · 15:35A. Kubiak2.50119671H. Tkaczyk1.4671111113WSep 18 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.2212116113A. Staniczek3.701081181WSep 18 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.41111011113J. Michalik2.71812971
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