TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145857
Played Sep 18Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
7.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411711611––––
Michal Guzik
Away
1.08
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:24 and never touched — 82.4% is still 82.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
82.4%
82.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Brunner above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Michal Guzik at 82.4%
50 points played in total.
H2H Marian Brunner 0–3 Michal Guzik Marian Brunner has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Guzik beat Brunner 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:24What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Guzik
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1240 vs Guzik 1600
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 360 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 20% vs Guzik 100%
Guzik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 20% vs Guzik 90%
Guzik
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner -2 · Guzik +5
Guzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 82% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 7.00 / Guzik 1.08
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13145857
Brunner7.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 47 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Guzik1.08
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 127 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it97% 74 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it89% 93 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBrunner0wins
AwayGuzik3wins
Guzik leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brunner1Guzik2n = 3Guzik took 2 of 3
S2Brunner0Guzik3n = 3Guzik took 3 of 3
S3Brunner0Guzik3n = 3Guzik took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricBrunnerGuzikB − GBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match20.735.0−14.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 580 vs 145 / 19949.1%72.9%285 / 580 vs 145 / 199Avg sets wonper match2.02.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikBrunner 7.00/Guzik 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.4%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 17 · 16:15M. Brunner115240M. Guzik331111113
LJul 30 · 21:45M. Brunner239680M. Guzik331111113
LJul 30 · 17:45M. Brunner28117281M. Guzik3961111113
M. Brunner10
LSep 18 · 24:35M. Brunner2.7596131152Z. Nocun1.401111116113LSep 17 · 23:20M. Brunner3.25114461G. Mucha1.3371111113WSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143LSep 17 · 21:20M. Brunner2.38101111482K. Gudzik1.53128911113LSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:30M. Brunner2.637740Z. Nocun1.441111113LSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113LSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240LSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113WSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113
M. Guzik10
WSep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.751010111252M. Guzik1.251212710113WSep 18 · 24:10M. Guzik1.4111911113K. Gudzik2.60911841WSep 17 · 22:35M. Guzik1.2051111113G. Mucha4.33117661WSep 17 · 21:45Z. Nocun4.0071490M. Guzik1.221116113WSep 17 · 20:30M. Guzik1.28411114113K. Gudzik3.5011851182WSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771WSep 17 · 17:45M. Guzik1.221111113Z. Nocun4.005720WSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240WSep 17 · 15:00M. Guzik1.2011117113G. Mucha4.33671181LSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962
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