TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147152
Played Sep 18Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.41
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911118114––
Krystian Gudzik
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Krystian Gudzik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 75 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Michal Guzik at 62.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 1–0 Krystian Gudzik Krystian Gudzik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Guzik beat Gudzik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (65%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1575 vs Gudzik 1423
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 100% vs Gudzik 80%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 80% vs Gudzik 60%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +5 · Gudzik +2
Guzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gudzik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.41 / Gudzik 2.60
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13147152
Guzik1.41
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 127 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it97% 74 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it89% 93 of 105
Gudzik2.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 18 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeGuzik1wins
AwayGudzik0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderGuzik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricGuzikGudzikGuzik − GudzikBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match41.043.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikGudzikBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 197 vs 66 / 12772.6%52%143 / 197 vs 66 / 127Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.41/Gudzik 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.6%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 17 · 20:30M. Guzik41411114113K. Gudzik4311851182
M. Guzik10
WSep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.751010111252M. Guzik1.251212710113WSep 17 · 22:35M. Guzik1.2051111113G. Mucha4.33117661WSep 17 · 21:45Z. Nocun4.0071490M. Guzik1.221116113WSep 17 · 20:30M. Guzik1.28411114113K. Gudzik3.5011851182WSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771WSep 17 · 17:45M. Guzik1.221111113Z. Nocun4.005720WSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240WSep 17 · 15:00M. Guzik1.2011117113G. Mucha4.33671181LSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962LSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172
K. Gudzik10
WSep 17 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.83681151K. Gudzik1.8311116113WSep 17 · 21:20M. Brunner2.38101111482K. Gudzik1.53128911113LSep 17 · 20:30M. Guzik1.28411114113K. Gudzik3.5011851182WSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.91131111113G. Mucha1.801151381WSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran1.73515971K. Gudzik2.00111311113LSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.731111614113K. Gudzik2.0035111682WSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113LSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760WSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Gudzik2.6311013642J. Zelezik1.445111111113
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