TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141157
Played Sep 18Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101210121171210511
Michal Guzik
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 100 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Michal Guzik at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 0–5 Michal Guzik Mateusz Baran has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Guzik beat Baran 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:30What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Guzik
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1390 vs Guzik 1589
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 198 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 60% vs Guzik 100%
Guzik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 50% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +1 · Guzik +5
Guzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 3.75 / Guzik 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Guzik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13141157
Baran3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 25 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Guzik1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 127 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it97% 74 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it89% 93 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBaran0wins
AwayGuzik5wins
1 of 5 to a deciderGuzik leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarann = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayGuzik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran0Guzik5n = 5Guzik took 5 of 5
S2Baran1Guzik4n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S3Baran2Guzik3n = 5Guzik took 3 of 5
S4Baran1Guzik2n = 3Guzik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricBaranGuzikB − GBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match34.041.2−7.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 149 vs 144 / 19854.4%72.7%81 / 149 vs 144 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikBaran 3.75/Guzik 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 17 · 18:55M. Baran31611771M. Guzik4011711113
LAug 6 · 22:50M. Baran3910811101M. Guzik4012115123
LAug 6 · 16:55M. Baran187560M. Guzik331111113
LAug 2 · 21:00M. Baran2771190M. Guzik351113113
LAug 2 · 16:35M. Baran551381311102M. Guzik581511119123
M. Baran10
WSep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.20117116113Z. Nocun1.6171171152LSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143WSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771LSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran1.73515971K. Gudzik2.00111311113LSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153WSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.531171161M. Baran2.3881113113WSep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.2071191292M. Baran1.611161110113LSep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.208711101A. Fomin1.6111119123
M. Guzik10
WSep 18 · 01:45M. Brunner7.004760M. Guzik1.081111113WSep 18 · 24:10M. Guzik1.4111911113K. Gudzik2.60911841WSep 17 · 22:35M. Guzik1.2051111113G. Mucha4.33117661WSep 17 · 21:45Z. Nocun4.0071490M. Guzik1.221116113WSep 17 · 20:30M. Guzik1.28411114113K. Gudzik3.5011851182WSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771WSep 17 · 17:45M. Guzik1.221111113Z. Nocun4.005720WSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240WSep 17 · 15:00M. Guzik1.2011117113G. Mucha4.33671181LSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962
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