TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145946
Played Sep 17Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117411411611––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:00 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Brunner above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 65 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 59.7%
65 points played in total.
H2H Marian Brunner 0–1 Grzegorz Mucha Marian Brunner has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:00What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1273 vs Mucha 1371
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 20% vs Mucha 40%
Mucha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 40% vs Mucha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner +1 · Mucha -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 3.25 / Mucha 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Mucha)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13145946
Brunner3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 47 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Mucha1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 88 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it100% 44 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it77% 59 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBrunner0wins
AwayMucha1wins
Mucha leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricBrunnerMuchaB − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match22.034.0−12.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 578 vs 145 / 28949.3%50.2%285 / 578 vs 145 / 289Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaBrunner 3.25/Mucha 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2251070G. Mucha341112113
M. Brunner10
WSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143LSep 17 · 21:20M. Brunner2.38101111482K. Gudzik1.53128911113LSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113LSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240LSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113WSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113WSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113WSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561LSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113
G. Mucha10
LSep 17 · 22:35M. Guzik1.2051111113G. Mucha4.33117661LSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.53123711122G. Mucha2.381011119143LSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.91131111113G. Mucha1.801151381WSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113WSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153LSep 17 · 15:00M. Guzik1.2011117113G. Mucha4.33671181LSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140LSep 15 · 24:50J. Zelezik1.83131116153G. Mucha1.8315714131WSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113
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