TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159433
Played Sep 19Finished
Dawid Pyrek
Home
2.95
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611311711––––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched — 80.3% is still 80.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
80.3%
80.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
49 points played in total.
Set by set
611311711––––
H2H Dawid Pyrek 10–45 Henryk Tkaczyk Dawid Pyrek has won 10 of their 55 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Tkaczyk beat Pyrek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (68%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-45 in 55
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 35 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrek 1302 vs Tkaczyk 1613
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 311 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrek 20% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrek 20% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrek -2 · Tkaczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pyrek form (20%) is below what odds imply (34%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrek 2.95 / Tkaczyk 1.36
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13159433
Pyrek2.95
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 57 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 77
Tkaczyk1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 398 of 568
Up 2–0, closes it94% 227 of 242
Up 1–0, closes it86% 309 of 361
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePyrek2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePyrek12.5%1 of 8
AwayTkaczykn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrek8Tkaczyk2n = 10Pyrek took 8 of 10
S2Pyrek1Tkaczyk9n = 10Tkaczyk took 9 of 10
S3Pyrek3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Pyrek3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S5Pyrek1Tkaczyk2n = 3Tkaczyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPyrekTkaczykP − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match33.241.8−8.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrekTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 778 vs 1017 / 151349.2%67.2%383 / 778 vs 1017 / 1513Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykPyrek 2.95/Tkaczyk 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 17:10D. Pyrek28114761H. Tkaczyk3961111113
LJul 16 · 02:20D. Pyrek3611731142H. Tkaczyk50911118113
LJul 15 · 18:20D. Pyrek316111311H. Tkaczyk46111311113
LJul 9 · 05:05D. Pyrek351186101H. Tkaczyk4061111123
LJul 8 · 20:45D. Pyrek29117561H. Tkaczyk4181111113
LJun 17 · 01:30D. Pyrek25118331H. Tkaczyk4291111113
WJun 16 · 19:30D. Pyrek4011711113H. Tkaczyk29511851
LJun 12 · 04:20D. Pyrek3511611162H. Tkaczyk47611811113
WJun 11 · 18:45D. Pyrek42511411113H. Tkaczyk4611811882
LMay 22 · 01:30D. Pyrek31117761H. Tkaczyk3851111113
D. Pyrek10
LSep 20 · 24:00A. Fomin1.5713811113D. Pyrek2.251111841LSep 19 · 22:00D. Pyrek3.605560M. Guzik1.181111113LSep 19 · 20:20D. Pyrek1.86861131J. Skorupa1.8011119113WSep 19 · 18:45A. Kubiak1.956111181D. Pyrek1.7511413113LSep 19 · 18:00M. Guzik1.251112113D. Pyrek3.6081050LSep 19 · 17:10D. Pyrek2.90114761H. Tkaczyk1.3561111113WSep 19 · 16:00D. Pyrek2.45111111113A. Fomin1.47691371LSep 19 · 02:45D. Pyrek2.6041020O. Jedrzejowski1.411112113LSep 19 · 01:10D. Pyrek3.009560C. Pawlik1.331111113LSep 19 · 24:00D. Pyrek1.87118731M. Natkaniec1.8551111113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 19 · 21:35A. Kubiak2.501071161H. Tkaczyk1.4612117113LSep 19 · 20:45M. Guzik1.681111113H. Tkaczyk2.056990WSep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk1.4211112113J. Skorupa2.558111091WSep 19 · 18:25A. Fomin1.9511137692H. Tkaczyk1.749111111113WSep 19 · 17:10D. Pyrek2.90114761H. Tkaczyk1.3561111113WSep 19 · 15:35A. Kubiak2.50119671H. Tkaczyk1.4671111113WSep 18 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.2212116113A. Staniczek3.701081181WSep 18 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.41111011113J. Michalik2.71812971LSep 18 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.51911661A. Krezel2.4111711113WSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192
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