TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159447
Played Sep 19Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.68
At publish
Won last 14Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 14
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119119––––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
2.05
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
116119119––––
H2H Michal Guzik 3–9 Henryk Tkaczyk Michal Guzik has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:57What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-9 in 12
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1613 vs Tkaczyk 1625
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 100% vs Tkaczyk 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 100% vs Tkaczyk 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +14 · Tkaczyk +6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.68 / Tkaczyk 2.05
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Guzik)-1.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13159447
Guzik1.68
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 14
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite75% won 137 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it98% 80 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it89% 101 of 113
Tkaczyk2.05
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 60 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back33% 17 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuzik3wins
AwayTkaczyk7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik50%2 of 4
AwayTkaczyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Guzik3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Guzik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Guzik4Tkaczyk3n = 7Guzik took 4 of 7
S5Guzik2Tkaczyk4n = 6Tkaczyk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuzikTkaczykG − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.441.0−2.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 204 vs 1017 / 151273.5%67.3%150 / 204 vs 1017 / 1512Avg sets wonper match2.52.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.68/Tkaczyk 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 03:05M. Guzik4911913792H. Tkaczyk539111111113
LSep 10 · 21:05M. Guzik46115111182H. Tkaczyk50131169113
LSep 4 · 24:10M. Guzik43311811102H. Tkaczyk48116118123
LSep 3 · 20:30M. Guzik2231180H. Tkaczyk351113113
WAug 28 · 02:10M. Guzik43115115113H. Tkaczyk4151191152
LAug 27 · 20:05M. Guzik25105100H. Tkaczyk351211123
WAug 21 · 02:35M. Guzik48811711113H. Tkaczyk3711511552
WAug 20 · 18:10M. Guzik4111811113H. Tkaczyk31711671
LAug 4 · 02:20M. Guzik195680H. Tkaczyk331111113
LAug 3 · 20:20M. Guzik4811118992H. Tkaczyk47951111113
M. Guzik10
WSep 19 · 22:00D. Pyrek3.605560M. Guzik1.181111113WSep 19 · 19:10M. Guzik1.541111113A. Fomin2.259560WSep 19 · 18:00M. Guzik1.251112113D. Pyrek3.6081050WSep 19 · 16:25M. Guzik1.331111113A. Kubiak2.956550WSep 19 · 15:10M. Guzik1.2141111113J. Skorupa3.35116441WSep 18 · 01:45M. Brunner7.004760M. Guzik1.081111113WSep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.751010111252M. Guzik1.251212710113WSep 18 · 24:10M. Guzik1.4111911113K. Gudzik2.60911841WSep 17 · 22:35M. Guzik1.2051111113G. Mucha4.33117661WSep 17 · 21:45Z. Nocun4.0071490M. Guzik1.221116113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 19 · 21:35A. Kubiak2.501071161H. Tkaczyk1.4612117113WSep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk1.4211112113J. Skorupa2.558111091WSep 19 · 18:25A. Fomin1.9511137692H. Tkaczyk1.749111111113WSep 19 · 17:10D. Pyrek2.90114761H. Tkaczyk1.3561111113WSep 19 · 15:35A. Kubiak2.50119671H. Tkaczyk1.4671111113WSep 18 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.2212116113A. Staniczek3.701081181WSep 18 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.41111011113J. Michalik2.71812971LSep 18 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.51911661A. Krezel2.4111711113WSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192WSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970
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