TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147397
Played Sep 18Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.41
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181012119117––
Jerzy Michalik
Away
2.71
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
1181012119117––
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 62–29 Jerzy Michalik Jerzy Michalik has won 29 of their 91 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (66%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
62-29 in 91
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 33 in 91, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1592 vs Michalik 1411
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Michalik 60%
Tkaczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Michalik 50%
Tkaczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk -1 · Michalik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (37%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.41 / Michalik 2.71
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13147397
Tkaczyk1.41
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 394 of 563
Up 2–0, closes it94% 225 of 240
Up 1–0, closes it86% 306 of 358
Michalik2.71
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 108 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk8wins
AwayMichalik2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk85.7%6 of 7
AwayMichalik33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk7Michalik3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Tkaczyk6Michalik4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Tkaczyk5Michalik5n = 10split evenly
S4Tkaczyk4Michalik3n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5Tkaczyk4Michalik1n = 5Tkaczyk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykMichalikT − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.238.6+4.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime1009 / 1508 vs 555 / 117566.9%47.2%1009 / 1508 vs 555 / 1175Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.41/Michalik 2.71
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.2%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk258980J. Michalik331111113
WSep 10 · 18:45H. Tkaczyk49118811113J. Michalik4381111582
WSep 8 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk331111113J. Michalik187650
WSep 4 · 02:35H. Tkaczyk331111113J. Michalik178360
LSep 3 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk50118111192J. Michalik49811613113
WSep 1 · 24:10H. Tkaczyk5811121113113J. Michalik4981461562
WAug 12 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk51111198123J. Michalik49981111102
WAug 7 · 01:30H. Tkaczyk53715812113J. Michalik511113111062
WAug 6 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk4061111123J. Michalik381198101
WAug 5 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk4011126113J. Michalik399101191
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 18 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.2212116113A. Staniczek3.701081181LSep 18 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.51911661A. Krezel2.4111711113WSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192WSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970WSep 14 · 09:30J. Slawomir2.31881181H. Tkaczyk1.5011118113WSep 14 · 08:30T. Przebierala7.757220H. Tkaczyk1.041111113WSep 14 · 07:30H. Tkaczyk1.67512118113M. Wolny2.09111081182WSep 14 · 05:10T. Kordaszewski8.004660H. Tkaczyk1.031111113WSep 14 · 04:10W. Stechly5.709790H. Tkaczyk1.091111113WSep 14 · 03:30D. Maszczynski5.004370H. Tkaczyk1.111111113
J. Michalik10
LSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.611311113J. Michalik2.2011370WSep 18 · 02:45J. Michalik1.501111123A. Staniczek2.3128100WSep 18 · 01:10J. Michalik2.44611126143J. Zelezik1.451151011122LSep 18 · 24:20A. Krezel1.801141111113J. Michalik1.8551161342WSep 17 · 23:05J. Michalik1.501113113A. Staniczek2.3131190LSep 17 · 21:30J. Michalik4.355780D. Molenda1.151111113LSep 17 · 20:20J. Michalik1.91813100A. Krezel1.801115123WSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952WSep 17 · 17:30J. Michalik2.0011911153J. Zelezik1.739117131LSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113
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