TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141252
Played Sep 18Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.61
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311113117––––
Jerzy Michalik
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:01 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
1311113117––––
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 4–6 Jerzy Michalik Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Michalik beat Kwiatkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:01What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Michalik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1426 vs Michalik 1404
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 20% vs Michalik 60%
Michalik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 10% vs Michalik 50%
Michalik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -1 · Michalik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.61 / Michalik 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13141252
Kwiatkowski1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 36 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Michalik2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 108 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski4wins
AwayMichalik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski80%4 of 5
AwayMichalik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski5Michalik5n = 10split evenly
S2Kwiatkowski7Michalik3n = 10Kwiatkowski took 7 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski5Michalik5n = 10split evenly
S4Kwiatkowski2Michalik3n = 5Michalik took 3 of 5
S5Kwiatkowski0Michalik3n = 3Michalik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiMichalikK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.737.0−0.3per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 261 vs 555 / 117642.9%47.2%112 / 261 vs 555 / 1176Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.61/Michalik 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski5081171952J. Michalik561161117113
WAug 25 · 23:30K. Kwiatkowski331111113J. Michalik153750
LAug 12 · 02:20K. Kwiatkowski34711881J. Michalik4111811113
LJul 31 · 01:25K. Kwiatkowski2357110J. Michalik351111133
WJul 30 · 19:20K. Kwiatkowski4111118113J. Michalik35961191
WJul 27 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski331111113J. Michalik205960
LJul 23 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski176740J. Michalik331111113
LJul 22 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski55611131692J. Michalik561151118113
LJul 15 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski4611613972J. Michalik528111111113
WJul 14 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski351311113J. Michalik2711880
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 18 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski1.6574120A. Krezel2.101111143WSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192LSep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.50139118102A. Staniczek2.401111811123LSep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski2.751011461D. Molenda1.3712811113LSep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.751171110142A. Krezel1.90911812163LSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113LSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952LSep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.37311141132A. Staniczek2.89116167113LSep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.916119121A. Fomin1.8011711143
J. Michalik10
LSep 18 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.41111011113J. Michalik2.71812971WSep 18 · 02:45J. Michalik1.501111123A. Staniczek2.3128100WSep 18 · 01:10J. Michalik2.44611126143J. Zelezik1.451151011122LSep 18 · 24:20A. Krezel1.801141111113J. Michalik1.8551161342WSep 17 · 23:05J. Michalik1.501113113A. Staniczek2.3131190LSep 17 · 21:30J. Michalik4.355780D. Molenda1.151111113LSep 17 · 20:20J. Michalik1.91813100A. Krezel1.801115123WSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952WSep 17 · 17:30J. Michalik2.0011911153J. Zelezik1.739117131LSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113
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