TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147406
Played Sep 18Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
2.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61111512106111412
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.45
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:04 and never touched — 69.0% is still 69.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
69.0%
69.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
61111512106111412
H2H Jerzy Michalik 2–18 Jacek Zelezik Jerzy Michalik has won 2 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Michalik beat Zelezik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Zelezik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-18 in 20
Zelezik
Wrong
gap of 16 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1387 vs Zelezik 1456
Zelezik
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 40% vs Zelezik 60%
Zelezik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 40% vs Zelezik 70%
Zelezik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -1 · Zelezik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 2.44 / Zelezik 1.45
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Zelezik)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13147406
Michalik2.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 108 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 105
Zelezik1.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 184 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it82% 142 of 174
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik1wins
AwayZelezik9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik16.7%1 of 6
AwayZelezik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik6Zelezik4n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S2Michalik2Zelezik8n = 10Zelezik took 8 of 10
S3Michalik2Zelezik8n = 10Zelezik took 8 of 10
S4Michalik0Zelezik7n = 7Zelezik took 7 of 7
S5Michalik1Zelezik2n = 3Zelezik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikZelezikM − ZBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.942.0−9.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime553 / 1173 vs 381 / 70447.1%54.1%553 / 1173 vs 381 / 704Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikMichalik 2.44/Zelezik 1.45
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik4611712972J. Zelezik485111011113
LSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik441778121J. Zelezik51151111143
LAug 26 · 24:45J. Michalik3211122432J. Zelezik485101111113
LAug 4 · 02:00J. Michalik36117991J. Zelezik4181111113
LJul 31 · 02:35J. Michalik173770J. Zelezik331111113
WJul 30 · 18:10J. Michalik43114115123J. Zelezik45811511102
LJul 7 · 23:30J. Michalik158520J. Zelezik331111113
LJul 3 · 02:45J. Michalik391111981J. Zelezik4413911113
LJul 2 · 23:05J. Michalik2596100J. Zelezik341111123
LMay 22 · 21:35J. Michalik32128481J. Zelezik43101111113
J. Michalik10
LSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.611311113J. Michalik2.2011370LSep 18 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.41111011113J. Michalik2.71812971WSep 18 · 02:45J. Michalik1.501111123A. Staniczek2.3128100LSep 18 · 24:20A. Krezel1.801141111113J. Michalik1.8551161342WSep 17 · 23:05J. Michalik1.501113113A. Staniczek2.3131190LSep 17 · 21:30J. Michalik4.355780D. Molenda1.151111113LSep 17 · 20:20J. Michalik1.91813100A. Krezel1.801115123WSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952WSep 17 · 17:30J. Michalik2.0011911153J. Zelezik1.739117131LSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113WSep 18 · 03:55A. Staniczek3.305850J. Zelezik1.211111113LSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970LSep 17 · 22:40A. Krezel1.8571111113J. Zelezik1.80115551WSep 17 · 21:55A. Staniczek3.3028100J. Zelezik1.261111123WSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113WSep 17 · 19:10D. Molenda1.3612311101J. Zelezik3.0014113123LSep 17 · 17:30J. Michalik2.0011911153J. Zelezik1.739117131WSep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk3.00971291J. Zelezik1.36111110113
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