TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147410
Played Sep 18Finished
Andrzej Krezel
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1154111161113114
Jerzy Michalik
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJerzy Michalik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
1154111161113114
H2H Andrzej Krezel 1–5 Jerzy Michalik Andrzej Krezel has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Krezel beat Michalik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:06What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krezel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Michalik
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krezel 1522 vs Michalik 1394
Krezel
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krezel 100% vs Michalik 60%
Krezel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krezel 90% vs Michalik 40%
Krezel
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krezel +5 · Michalik +1
Krezel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krezel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krezel form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrezel 1.80 / Michalik 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krezel)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13147410
Krezel1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 26 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Michalik1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 108 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKrezel1wins
AwayMichalik5wins
1 of 6 to a deciderMichalik leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrezel25%1 of 4
AwayMichalikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krezel4Michalik2n = 6Krezel took 4 of 6
S2Krezel2Michalik4n = 6Michalik took 4 of 6
S3Krezel2Michalik4n = 6Michalik took 4 of 6
S4Krezel0Michalik4n = 4Michalik took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKrezelMichalikK − MBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match37.739.8−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrezelMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 246 vs 553 / 117236.2%47.2%89 / 246 vs 553 / 1172Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrezelKrezel 1.80/Michalik 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krezel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krezel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 17 · 20:20A. Krezel381115123J. Michalik31813100
LSep 8 · 17:55A. Krezel4211412962J. Michalik463111011113
LSep 7 · 21:10A. Krezel3911101081J. Michalik3941212113
LSep 3 · 21:00A. Krezel30101280J. Michalik371214113
LSep 3 · 16:35A. Krezel3811105121J. Michalik4141211143
LAug 26 · 05:05A. Krezel397131091J. Michalik45111112113
A. Krezel10
WSep 17 · 22:40A. Krezel1.8571111113J. Zelezik1.80115551WSep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.751171110142A. Krezel1.90911812163WSep 17 · 20:20J. Michalik1.91813100A. Krezel1.801115123WSep 17 · 19:30A. Krezel1.571111113A. Staniczek2.179660WSep 17 · 18:20A. Krezel4.701112113D. Molenda1.1391090WSep 17 · 05:05A. Krezel1.59891311113A. Staniczek2.12111111492LSep 17 · 03:30A. Krezel2.554890M. Warzecha1.451111113WSep 17 · 02:20A. Krezel2.60981111113Z. Nocun1.4011114642WSep 17 · 24:45A. Krezel1.261111113W. Stechly3.259940WSep 16 · 23:30A. Krezel1.262011113K. Rybak3.2518550
J. Michalik10
WSep 17 · 23:05J. Michalik1.501113113A. Staniczek2.3131190LSep 17 · 21:30J. Michalik4.355780D. Molenda1.151111113LSep 17 · 20:20J. Michalik1.91813100A. Krezel1.801115123WSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952WSep 17 · 17:30J. Michalik2.0011911153J. Zelezik1.739117131LSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113LSep 16 · 03:05J. Michalik1.861181451J. Skorupa1.7891116113LSep 16 · 01:55J. Michalik1.92081141M. Baran1.7211118113WSep 16 · 24:45K. Rybak3.951111681J. Michalik1.2013611113LSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133
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