TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141254
Played Sep 18Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116117––––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:01 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
119116117––––
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 4–10 Jacek Zelezik Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Zelezik beat Kwiatkowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:01What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zelezik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-10 in 14
Zelezik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1419 vs Zelezik 1472
Zelezik
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 0% vs Zelezik 60%
Zelezik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 0% vs Zelezik 70%
Zelezik
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -5 · Zelezik -2
Kwiatkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (0%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.90 / Zelezik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zelezik)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13141254
Kwiatkowski1.90
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 66 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Zelezik1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 184 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it82% 142 of 174
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski2wins
AwayZelezik8wins
Zelezik leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski28.6%2 of 7
AwayZelezik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski7Zelezik3n = 10Kwiatkowski took 7 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski4Zelezik6n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski2Zelezik8n = 10Zelezik took 8 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski0Zelezik7n = 7Zelezik took 7 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiZelezikK − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.137.4−4.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 259 vs 381 / 70342.9%54.2%111 / 259 vs 381 / 703Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikKwiatkowski 1.90/Zelezik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski33119851J. Zelezik4071111113
WAug 26 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski331111113J. Zelezik259970
LAug 25 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski28113771J. Zelezik4291111113
LAug 19 · 22:35K. Kwiatkowski305113111J. Zelezik3811311133
WAug 19 · 15:00K. Kwiatkowski331111113J. Zelezik142840
LAug 18 · 23:30K. Kwiatkowski401188131J. Zelezik4471111153
LAug 18 · 19:10K. Kwiatkowski33116791J. Zelezik3961111113
LJul 30 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski2371060J. Zelezik341112113
LJul 30 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski4813161091J. Zelezik52111812113
LJul 26 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski302114131J. Zelezik4611911153
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.611311113J. Michalik2.2011370LSep 18 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski1.6574120A. Krezel2.101111143LSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192LSep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.50139118102A. Staniczek2.401111811123LSep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski2.751011461D. Molenda1.3712811113LSep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.751171110142A. Krezel1.90911812163LSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113LSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952LSep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.37311141132A. Staniczek2.89116167113LSep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.916119121A. Fomin1.8011711143
J. Zelezik10
WSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113WSep 18 · 03:55A. Staniczek3.305850J. Zelezik1.211111113LSep 18 · 01:10J. Michalik2.44611126143J. Zelezik1.451151011122LSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970LSep 17 · 22:40A. Krezel1.8571111113J. Zelezik1.80115551WSep 17 · 21:55A. Staniczek3.3028100J. Zelezik1.261111123WSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113WSep 17 · 19:10D. Molenda1.3612311101J. Zelezik3.0014113123LSep 17 · 17:30J. Michalik2.0011911153J. Zelezik1.739117131WSep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk3.00971291J. Zelezik1.36111110113
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