TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141253
Played Sep 18Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7114111214––––
Andrzej Krezel
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
7114111214––––
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 3–2 Andrzej Krezel Andrzej Krezel has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Krezel beat Kwiatkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:01What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1436 vs Krezel 1549
Krezel
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 20% vs Krezel 100%
Krezel
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 10% vs Krezel 90%
Krezel
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +1 · Krezel +5
Krezel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kwiatkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krezel form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.65 / Krezel 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13141253
Kwiatkowski1.65
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 36 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Krezel2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 52 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back11% 12 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski3wins
AwayKrezel2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayKrezeln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski3Krezel2n = 5Kwiatkowski took 3 of 5
S2Kwiatkowski4Krezel1n = 5Kwiatkowski took 4 of 5
S3Kwiatkowski3Krezel2n = 5Kwiatkowski took 3 of 5
S4Kwiatkowski1Krezel2n = 3Krezel took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiKrezelKwiatkowski − KrezelBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.437.8+2.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiKrezelBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 260 vs 92 / 24943.1%37%112 / 260 vs 92 / 249Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.65/Krezel 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Krezel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski531171110142A. Krezel56911812163
WAug 26 · 03:55K. Kwiatkowski331111113A. Krezel235990
WAug 25 · 21:55K. Kwiatkowski48811612113A. Krezel43116111052
WAug 24 · 22:50K. Kwiatkowski331111113A. Krezel257990
LAug 24 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski357117101A. Krezel4211811123
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.611311113J. Michalik2.2011370WSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192LSep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.50139118102A. Staniczek2.401111811123LSep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski2.751011461D. Molenda1.3712811113LSep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.751171110142A. Krezel1.90911812163LSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113LSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952LSep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.37311141132A. Staniczek2.89116167113LSep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.916119121A. Fomin1.8011711143
A. Krezel10
LSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113WSep 18 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.51911661A. Krezel2.4111711113WSep 18 · 01:30A. Krezel1.5713111211113A. Staniczek2.17117141392WSep 18 · 24:20A. Krezel1.801141111113J. Michalik1.8551161342WSep 17 · 22:40A. Krezel1.8571111113J. Zelezik1.80115551WSep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.751171110142A. Krezel1.90911812163WSep 17 · 20:20J. Michalik1.91813100A. Krezel1.801115123WSep 17 · 19:30A. Krezel1.571111113A. Staniczek2.179660WSep 17 · 18:20A. Krezel4.701112113D. Molenda1.1391090WSep 17 · 05:05A. Krezel1.59891311113A. Staniczek2.12111111492
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.