TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141255
Played Sep 18Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.54
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113115115611119
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
2.23
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:01 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
93 points played in total.
Set by set
1113115115611119
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 9–3 Kacper Kwiatkowski Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1602 vs Kwiatkowski 1425
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 100% vs Kwiatkowski 0%
Tkaczyk
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 90% vs Kwiatkowski 0%
Tkaczyk
Correct
90pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +5 · Kwiatkowski -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.54 / Kwiatkowski 2.23
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13141255
Tkaczyk1.54
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 394 of 563
Up 2–0, closes it94% 225 of 240
Up 1–0, closes it86% 306 of 358
Kwiatkowski2.23
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 66 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk7wins
AwayKwiatkowski3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk100%4 of 4
AwayKwiatkowski50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk4Kwiatkowski6n = 10Kwiatkowski took 6 of 10
S2Tkaczyk9Kwiatkowski1n = 10Tkaczyk took 9 of 10
S3Tkaczyk9Kwiatkowski1n = 10Tkaczyk took 9 of 10
S4Tkaczyk3Kwiatkowski3n = 6split evenly
S5Tkaczyk1Kwiatkowski2n = 3Kwiatkowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykKwiatkowskiT − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.232.4+7.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1008 / 1506 vs 111 / 25866.9%43%1008 / 1506 vs 111 / 258Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.54/Kwiatkowski 2.23
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk561015111192K. Kwiatkowski48121753113
WAug 23 · 15:25H. Tkaczyk331111113K. Kwiatkowski248880
LAug 12 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk381311861K. Kwiatkowski4415711113
WAug 11 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk45121111113K. Kwiatkowski37148691
WAug 10 · 23:10H. Tkaczyk331111113K. Kwiatkowski236890
WAug 10 · 17:20H. Tkaczyk47611118113K. Kwiatkowski3811831152
LJul 27 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk4371111592K. Kwiatkowski48119611113
WJul 26 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk331111113K. Kwiatkowski166190
WJul 14 · 01:10H. Tkaczyk4181111113K. Kwiatkowski26115911
WJul 13 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk331111113K. Kwiatkowski205960
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970WSep 14 · 09:30J. Slawomir2.31881181H. Tkaczyk1.5011118113WSep 14 · 08:30T. Przebierala7.757220H. Tkaczyk1.041111113WSep 14 · 07:30H. Tkaczyk1.67512118113M. Wolny2.09111081182WSep 14 · 05:10T. Kordaszewski8.004660H. Tkaczyk1.031111113WSep 14 · 04:10W. Stechly5.709790H. Tkaczyk1.091111113WSep 14 · 03:30D. Maszczynski5.004370H. Tkaczyk1.111111113LSep 11 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk1.438980J. Michalik2.501111113WSep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk1.859111111113M. Guzik1.8011913792WSep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.561111113J. Zelezik2.197980
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.50139118102A. Staniczek2.401111811123LSep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski2.751011461D. Molenda1.3712811113LSep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.751171110142A. Krezel1.90911812163LSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113LSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952LSep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.37311141132A. Staniczek2.89116167113LSep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.916119121A. Fomin1.8011711143LSep 17 · 24:35J. Skorupa2.0011145113K. Kwiatkowski1.734121181LSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152LSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113
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