TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13158424
Played Sep 19Finished
Dawid Pyrek
Home
2.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116411711611––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.35
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
67 points played in total.
Set by set
116411711611––
H2H Dawid Pyrek 10–44 Henryk Tkaczyk Dawid Pyrek has won 10 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:48What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (68%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-44 in 54
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 34 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrek 1312 vs Tkaczyk 1606
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 294 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrek 20% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrek 10% vs Tkaczyk 90%
Tkaczyk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrek +1 · Tkaczyk +3
Tkaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pyrek form (20%) is below what odds imply (34%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrek 2.90 / Tkaczyk 1.35
Signal prob.26% / 75%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13158424
Pyrek2.90
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 57 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 77
Tkaczyk1.35
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 398 of 568
Up 2–0, closes it94% 227 of 242
Up 1–0, closes it86% 309 of 361
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePyrek2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePyrek12.5%1 of 8
AwayTkaczykn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrek8Tkaczyk2n = 10Pyrek took 8 of 10
S2Pyrek1Tkaczyk9n = 10Tkaczyk took 9 of 10
S3Pyrek4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Pyrek3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S5Pyrek1Tkaczyk3n = 4Tkaczyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPyrekTkaczykP − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match35.143.1−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrekTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 773 vs 1014 / 151249.4%67.1%382 / 773 vs 1014 / 1512Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykPyrek 2.90/Tkaczyk 1.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.5%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 16 · 02:20D. Pyrek3611731142H. Tkaczyk50911118113
LJul 15 · 18:20D. Pyrek316111311H. Tkaczyk46111311113
LJul 9 · 05:05D. Pyrek351186101H. Tkaczyk4061111123
LJul 8 · 20:45D. Pyrek29117561H. Tkaczyk4181111113
LJun 17 · 01:30D. Pyrek25118331H. Tkaczyk4291111113
WJun 16 · 19:30D. Pyrek4011711113H. Tkaczyk29511851
LJun 12 · 04:20D. Pyrek3511611162H. Tkaczyk47611811113
WJun 11 · 18:45D. Pyrek42511411113H. Tkaczyk4611811882
LMay 22 · 01:30D. Pyrek31117761H. Tkaczyk3851111113
LMay 21 · 19:55D. Pyrek471110114112H. Tkaczyk52912711133
D. Pyrek10
LSep 19 · 18:00M. Guzik1.251112113D. Pyrek3.6081050WSep 19 · 16:00D. Pyrek2.45111111113A. Fomin1.47691371LSep 19 · 02:45D. Pyrek2.6041020O. Jedrzejowski1.411112113LSep 19 · 01:10D. Pyrek3.009560C. Pawlik1.331111113LSep 19 · 24:00D. Pyrek1.87118731M. Natkaniec1.8551111113LSep 18 · 22:25D. Pyrek1.7511211562M. Krutak1.95911811113LSep 18 · 21:10D. Pyrek3.5051121162J. Oracz1.26117119113LSep 18 · 20:00M. Krutak1.5011911113D. Pyrek2.40911861LSep 18 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.3681112113D. Pyrek2.951191061LSep 18 · 18:25D. Pyrek2.608710O. Jedrzejowski1.411111113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 19 · 15:35A. Kubiak2.50119671H. Tkaczyk1.4671111113WSep 18 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.2212116113A. Staniczek3.701081181WSep 18 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.41111011113J. Michalik2.71812971LSep 18 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.51911661A. Krezel2.4111711113WSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192WSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970WSep 14 · 09:30J. Slawomir2.31881181H. Tkaczyk1.5011118113WSep 14 · 08:30T. Przebierala7.757220H. Tkaczyk1.041111113WSep 14 · 07:30H. Tkaczyk1.67512118113M. Wolny2.09111081182WSep 14 · 05:10T. Kordaszewski8.004660H. Tkaczyk1.031111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Pyrek
H. Tkaczyk
Sep 19 · 18:25H. Tkaczyk1.74A. Fomin1.95—Sep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk1.40J. Skorupa2.75—Sep 19 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk2.20M. Guzik1.60—Sep 19 · 21:35H. Tkaczyk1.46A. Kubiak2.50—Sep 19 · 23:10H. Tkaczyk1.36D. Pyrek2.95—Sep 20 · 24:25H. Tkaczyk2.20M. Guzik1.60—Sep 20 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk1.32J. Skorupa2.70—Sep 20 · 02:45H. Tkaczyk—A. Fomin——
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