TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13158408
Played Sep 19Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.42
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181111210119––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.55
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:39 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
1181111210119––
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 34–14 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 14 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.42 (64%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-14 in 48
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 20 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1620 vs Skorupa 1340
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 280 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 100% vs Skorupa 40%
Tkaczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 90% vs Skorupa 40%
Tkaczyk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +5 · Skorupa -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.42 / Skorupa 2.55
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13158408
Tkaczyk1.42
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 398 of 568
Up 2–0, closes it94% 227 of 242
Up 1–0, closes it86% 309 of 361
Skorupa2.55
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back16% 26 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk8wins
AwaySkorupa2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk100%8 of 8
AwaySkorupan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk8Skorupa2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Tkaczyk5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Tkaczyk6Skorupa4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Tkaczyk4Skorupa4n = 8split evenly
S5Tkaczyk4Skorupa1n = 5Tkaczyk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykSkorupaT − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.639.9+4.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime1016 / 1512 vs 319 / 66367.2%48.1%1016 / 1512 vs 319 / 663Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.42/Skorupa 2.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.2%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk55139118143J. Skorupa531111811122
WSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk361111143J. Skorupa2796120
WSep 1 · 01:30H. Tkaczyk43111011113J. Skorupa37912791
WAug 31 · 20:05H. Tkaczyk481111510113J. Skorupa4185111252
LAug 28 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk51812813102J. Skorupa5511101111123
WAug 27 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk341112113J. Skorupa2481060
LAug 20 · 23:45H. Tkaczyk419128121J. Skorupa46111011143
WAug 20 · 15:50H. Tkaczyk511161112113J. Skorupa4471181442
WAug 17 · 21:10H. Tkaczyk44118311113J. Skorupa4071111472
WAug 4 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk43111011113J. Skorupa32712761
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 19 · 21:35A. Kubiak2.501071161H. Tkaczyk1.4612117113LSep 19 · 20:45M. Guzik1.681111113H. Tkaczyk2.056990WSep 19 · 18:25A. Fomin1.9511137692H. Tkaczyk1.749111111113WSep 19 · 17:10D. Pyrek2.90114761H. Tkaczyk1.3561111113WSep 19 · 15:35A. Kubiak2.50119671H. Tkaczyk1.4671111113WSep 18 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.2212116113A. Staniczek3.701081181WSep 18 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.41111011113J. Michalik2.71812971LSep 18 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.51911661A. Krezel2.4111711113WSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192WSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970
J. Skorupa10
WSep 19 · 21:10A. Fomin2.0565110J. Skorupa1.651111133WSep 19 · 20:20D. Pyrek1.86861131J. Skorupa1.8011119113LSep 19 · 17:35A. Kubiak1.661111113J. Skorupa2.057970LSep 19 · 16:50A. Fomin1.45813611113J. Skorupa2.45111111552LSep 19 · 15:10M. Guzik1.2141111113J. Skorupa3.35116441WSep 17 · 01:45J. Skorupa2.201112104123M. Lewczuk1.618101211102WSep 17 · 24:35J. Skorupa2.0011145113K. Kwiatkowski1.734121181LSep 16 · 23:20J. Skorupa2.631149111A. Fomin1.4491111133LSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.2071111113J. Skorupa1.61115961LSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113
Upcoming Matches
H. Tkaczyk
J. Skorupa
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.