TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139764
Played Sep 17Finished
Jakub Skorupa
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118121010124111210
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Skorupa above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 100 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 58.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Skorupa 6–8 Miroslaw Lewczuk Jakub Skorupa has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:26What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lewczuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Lewczuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorupa 1427 vs Lewczuk 1336
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorupa 40% vs Lewczuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorupa 50% vs Lewczuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorupa +1 · Lewczuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Lewczuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorupa 2.20 / Lewczuk 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Lewczuk)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13139764
Skorupa2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 96 of 292
Down 0–1, comes back15% 25 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 97
Lewczuk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 171 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it96% 111 of 116
Up 1–0, closes it83% 130 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorupa3wins
AwayLewczuk7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorupa40%2 of 5
AwayLewczuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorupa5Lewczuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Skorupa3Lewczuk7n = 10Lewczuk took 7 of 10
S3Skorupa0Lewczuk10n = 10Lewczuk took 10 of 10
S4Skorupa4Lewczuk3n = 7Skorupa took 4 of 7
S5Skorupa3Lewczuk2n = 5Skorupa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorupaLewczukS − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.843.0−4.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorupaLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 659 vs 491 / 95948.4%51.2%319 / 659 vs 491 / 959Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukSkorupa 2.20/Lewczuk 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 23:10J. Skorupa49111212772M. Lewczuk504101411113
LSep 7 · 17:20J. Skorupa34128591M. Lewczuk43101111113
WSep 6 · 21:20J. Skorupa535111214113M. Lewczuk43114141222
LSep 6 · 15:25J. Skorupa195860M. Lewczuk331111113
LAug 31 · 22:30J. Skorupa31119831M. Lewczuk4181111113
LAug 31 · 15:00J. Skorupa52101181672M. Lewczuk551271114113
WJun 18 · 23:55J. Skorupa51119911113M. Lewczuk4881111992
WJun 18 · 17:55J. Skorupa46114911113M. Lewczuk4691111692
LJun 18 · 03:55J. Skorupa2571260M. Lewczuk361114113
LJun 17 · 21:55J. Skorupa2881190M. Lewczuk351113113
J. Skorupa10
WSep 17 · 24:35J. Skorupa2.0011145113K. Kwiatkowski1.734121181LSep 16 · 23:20J. Skorupa2.631149111A. Fomin1.4491111133LSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.2071111113J. Skorupa1.61115961LSep 16 · 21:20J. Skorupa1.67913481M. Baran2.10111111113WSep 16 · 04:40J. Skorupa1.957141111113M. Baran1.77111261342WSep 16 · 03:05J. Michalik1.861181451J. Skorupa1.7891116113LSep 16 · 02:20K. Rybak4.10615711113J. Skorupa1.17111311682LSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100WSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 17 · 01:00M. Machelski2.3853100M. Lewczuk1.531111123LSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113LSep 16 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.258930A. Fomin1.571111113WSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57351111122M. Lewczuk2.25111198143LSep 16 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.67118101172M. Baran2.10511128113WSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.531111113M. Machelski2.388550WSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312LSep 16 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.30810130A. Skupinski3.401112153LSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760
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