TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Andriej Fomin
Home
2.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181165119111012
Michal Guzik
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:35 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1181165119111012
H2H Andriej Fomin 1–4 Michal Guzik Andriej Fomin has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Guzik beat Fomin 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Guzik
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fomin 1483 vs Guzik 1622
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fomin 60% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fomin 60% vs Guzik 90%
Guzik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fomin +2 · Guzik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFomin 2.40 / Guzik 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 66%
Edge (Guzik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13159897
Fomin2.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 64 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back36% 25 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Guzik1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite75% won 137 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it98% 80 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it89% 101 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeFomin1wins
AwayGuzik4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderGuzik leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFominn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGuzik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fomin1Guzik4n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S2Fomin1Guzik4n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S3Fomin1Guzik4n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricFominGuzikF − GBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match31.238.6−7.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFominGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime540 / 922 vs 153 / 20858.6%73.6%540 / 922 vs 153 / 208Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikFomin 2.40/Guzik 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.5%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 19 · 19:10A. Fomin209560M. Guzik331111113
WAug 4 · 24:00A. Fomin49131195113M. Guzik44115111162
LJul 27 · 16:15A. Fomin249870M. Guzik331111113
LJul 19 · 22:35A. Fomin2571260M. Guzik361114113
LJul 19 · 15:00A. Fomin388514111M. Guzik47111112133
A. Fomin10
LSep 20 · 02:45A. Fomin1.9011680H. Tkaczyk1.751311113WSep 20 · 24:00A. Fomin1.5713811113D. Pyrek2.251111841WSep 19 · 22:25A. Fomin1.57891211113A. Kubiak2.20111110992LSep 19 · 21:10A. Fomin2.0565110J. Skorupa1.651111133WSep 19 · 20:00A. Kubiak2.3553111132A. Fomin1.54111169113LSep 19 · 19:10M. Guzik1.541111113A. Fomin2.259560LSep 19 · 18:25A. Fomin1.9511137692H. Tkaczyk1.749111111113WSep 19 · 16:50A. Fomin1.45813611113J. Skorupa2.45111111552LSep 19 · 16:00D. Pyrek2.45111111113A. Fomin1.47691371WSep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.916119121A. Fomin1.8011711143
M. Guzik10
WSep 21 · 01:45K. Rybak9.0011115792M. Guzik1.04491111113WSep 21 · 01:00Z. Nocun6.5061170M. Guzik1.101113113WSep 21 · 24:10M. Guzik1.17611711113G. Mucha4.5011411892WSep 20 · 22:35M. Guzik1.1711119113J. Skorupa4.50681191WSep 20 · 21:45A. Zmijewski2.7511771342M. Guzik1.407111111113WSep 20 · 20:30M. Guzik1.1711111110113G. Mucha4.5091321292WSep 20 · 18:55M. Guzik1.201111113Z. Nocun4.337440WSep 20 · 17:45M. Guzik1.4071112113A. Zmijewski2.751171061WSep 20 · 16:15M. Guzik1.061111113K. Rybak8.004250WSep 19 · 19:10M. Guzik1.541111113A. Fomin2.259560
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