TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111171210116––
Artur Zmijewski
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:31 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Artur Zmijewski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-6
Point 72 set 4, 8-6 — our read held Michal Guzik at 56.0%
72 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Guzik 1–1 Artur Zmijewski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:31What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1641 vs Zmijewski 1491
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 80% vs Zmijewski 100%
Zmijewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 90% vs Zmijewski 70%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +4 · Zmijewski +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.40 / Zmijewski 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13163118
Guzik1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite76% won 146 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it98% 86 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it90% 108 of 120
Zmijewski2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 13 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGuzik1wins
AwayZmijewski1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGuzikZmijewskiG − ZBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match46.039.5+6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 212 vs 85 / 14274.1%59.9%157 / 212 vs 85 / 142Avg sets wonper match2.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.40/Zmijewski 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 27 · 21:45M. Guzik4071111113A. Zmijewski32117591
LAug 27 · 17:45M. Guzik529111011112A. Zmijewski47115126133
M. Guzik10
WSep 20 · 16:15M. Guzik1.061111113K. Rybak8.004250WSep 20 · 15:00M. Guzik1.201111113J. Skorupa4.339930WSep 20 · 02:00A. Kubiak3.00561171M. Guzik1.2611119113WSep 20 · 01:10A. Fomin2.40111159102M. Guzik1.50861111123LSep 20 · 24:25M. Guzik1.604390H. Tkaczyk2.201111113WSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik1.2711311113J. Skorupa3.30811351WSep 19 · 22:00D. Pyrek3.605560M. Guzik1.181111113WSep 19 · 20:45M. Guzik1.681111113H. Tkaczyk2.056990WSep 19 · 19:10M. Guzik1.541111113A. Fomin2.259560WSep 19 · 18:00M. Guzik1.251112113D. Pyrek3.6081050
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 20 · 18:30K. Rybak5.003640A. Zmijewski1.141111113WSep 20 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.441111113G. Mucha2.633790WSep 20 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.57116811113Z. Nocun2.2531111672WSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 01:35A. Staniczek3.251091171A. Zmijewski1.3012119113WSep 14 · 23:35J. Cyndera2.108650A. Zmijewski1.601111113LSep 14 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.71119119113A. Zmijewski2.0091181172LSep 14 · 21:10J. Michalik2.15111111113A. Zmijewski1.55661351WSep 14 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.3531060A. Zmijewski1.501112113LSep 14 · 19:35A. Staniczek3.35111311123A. Zmijewski1.258158101
Upcoming Matches
M. Guzik
A. Zmijewski
Sep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.50J. Skorupa2.50—Sep 20 · 21:45A. Zmijewski3.00M. Guzik1.36—Sep 20 · 22:55A. Zmijewski1.36G. Mucha3.00—Sep 20 · 23:45A. Zmijewski1.57Z. Nocun2.25—Sep 21 · 24:35A. Zmijewski1.07K. Rybak5.00—Sep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.50J. Skorupa2.50—Sep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski—M. Baran——Sep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 21 · 17:45A. Zmijewski—M. Lewczuk——Sep 21 · 18:30A. Zmijewski—K. Kwiatkowski——
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