TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159894
Played Sep 20Finished
Artur Kubiak
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511611119711––
Michal Guzik
Away
1.26
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:34 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
511611119711––
H2H Artur Kubiak 1–4 Michal Guzik Artur Kubiak has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Guzik beat Kubiak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.26 (70%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Guzik
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubiak 1342 vs Guzik 1629
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 288 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubiak 20% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubiak 30% vs Guzik 90%
Guzik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubiak -1 · Guzik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubiak 3.00 / Guzik 1.26
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Guzik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13159894
Kubiak3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 74 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 73
Guzik1.26
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite75% won 137 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it98% 80 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it89% 101 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKubiak1wins
AwayGuzik4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderGuzik leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubiak33.3%1 of 3
AwayGuzikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubiak3Guzik2n = 5Kubiak took 3 of 5
S2Kubiak1Guzik4n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S3Kubiak0Guzik5n = 5Guzik took 5 of 5
S4Kubiak0Guzik3n = 3Guzik took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricKubiakGuzikK − GBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match27.638.6−11.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubiakGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime490 / 897 vs 154 / 20954.6%73.7%490 / 897 vs 154 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.02.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikKubiak 3.00/Guzik 1.26
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.8%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 19 · 16:25A. Kubiak166550M. Guzik331111113
LSep 14 · 24:10A. Kubiak30118831M. Guzik3961111113
LSep 13 · 20:30A. Kubiak2711880M. Guzik351311113
LJul 28 · 24:10A. Kubiak19111521M. Guzik4291111113
WJul 27 · 20:30A. Kubiak46121139113M. Guzik44104111182
A. Kubiak10
LSep 20 · 24:45A. Kubiak1.8561060D. Pyrek1.851112113WSep 19 · 23:35A. Kubiak1.66127711113J. Skorupa2.05101111752LSep 19 · 22:25A. Fomin1.57891211113A. Kubiak2.20111110992LSep 19 · 21:35A. Kubiak2.501071161H. Tkaczyk1.4612117113LSep 19 · 20:00A. Kubiak2.3553111132A. Fomin1.54111169113LSep 19 · 18:45A. Kubiak1.956111181D. Pyrek1.7511413113WSep 19 · 17:35A. Kubiak1.661111113J. Skorupa2.057970LSep 19 · 16:25M. Guzik1.331111113A. Kubiak2.956550LSep 19 · 15:35A. Kubiak2.50119671H. Tkaczyk1.4671111113WSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123
M. Guzik10
WSep 20 · 01:10A. Fomin2.40111159102M. Guzik1.50861111123LSep 20 · 24:25M. Guzik1.604390H. Tkaczyk2.201111113WSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik1.2711311113J. Skorupa3.30811351WSep 19 · 22:00D. Pyrek3.605560M. Guzik1.181111113WSep 19 · 20:45M. Guzik1.681111113H. Tkaczyk2.056990WSep 19 · 19:10M. Guzik1.541111113A. Fomin2.259560WSep 19 · 18:00M. Guzik1.251112113D. Pyrek3.6081050WSep 19 · 16:25M. Guzik1.331111113A. Kubiak2.956550WSep 19 · 15:10M. Guzik1.2141111113J. Skorupa3.35116441WSep 18 · 01:45M. Brunner7.004760M. Guzik1.081111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Kubiak
Nothing scheduled
M. Guzik
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