TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159431
Played Sep 19Finished
Artur Kubiak
Home
1.66
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210711711117115
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.05
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
1210711711117115
H2H Artur Kubiak 14–8 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kubiak beat Skorupa 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Kubiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-8 in 22
Kubiak
Correct
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubiak 1347 vs Skorupa 1363
Skorupa
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubiak 20% vs Skorupa 40%
Skorupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubiak 20% vs Skorupa 40%
Skorupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubiak -4 · Skorupa -1
Kubiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kubiak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubiak 1.66 / Skorupa 2.05
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kubiak)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13159431
Kubiak1.66
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 153 of 224
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it84% 105 of 125
Skorupa2.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back16% 26 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubiak5wins
AwaySkorupa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubiak66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkorupa57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubiak3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S2Kubiak7Skorupa3n = 10Kubiak took 7 of 10
S3Kubiak3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S4Kubiak4Skorupa3n = 7Kubiak took 4 of 7
S5Kubiak3Skorupa2n = 5Kubiak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubiakSkorupaK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.440.5−3.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubiakSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 897 vs 321 / 66754.7%48.1%491 / 897 vs 321 / 667Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakKubiak 1.66/Skorupa 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 17:35A. Kubiak331111113J. Skorupa237970
LSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak27101250J. Skorupa371214113
WSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak3911116113J. Skorupa34691181
LAug 30 · 22:35A. Kubiak4687111192J. Skorupa50111189113
WAug 30 · 15:00A. Kubiak49711911113J. Skorupa4411611972
LAug 29 · 23:10A. Kubiak145540J. Skorupa331111113
WAug 29 · 17:10A. Kubiak505121110123J. Skorupa481110512102
LAug 25 · 02:20A. Kubiak4211115692J. Skorupa48691111113
LJul 18 · 23:10A. Kubiak28411851J. Skorupa4211911113
WJul 18 · 17:10A. Kubiak46611711113J. Skorupa4611911692
A. Kubiak10
LSep 19 · 22:25A. Fomin1.57891211113A. Kubiak2.20111110992LSep 19 · 21:35A. Kubiak2.501071161H. Tkaczyk1.4612117113LSep 19 · 20:00A. Kubiak2.3553111132A. Fomin1.54111169113LSep 19 · 18:45A. Kubiak1.956111181D. Pyrek1.7511413113WSep 19 · 17:35A. Kubiak1.661111113J. Skorupa2.057970LSep 19 · 16:25M. Guzik1.331111113A. Kubiak2.956550LSep 19 · 15:35A. Kubiak2.50119671H. Tkaczyk1.4671111113WSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123LSep 14 · 01:25A. Kubiak2.101460G. Mucha1.671111113LSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831
J. Skorupa10
LSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik1.2711311113J. Skorupa3.30811351WSep 19 · 21:10A. Fomin2.0565110J. Skorupa1.651111133WSep 19 · 20:20D. Pyrek1.86861131J. Skorupa1.8011119113LSep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk1.4211112113J. Skorupa2.558111091LSep 19 · 17:35A. Kubiak1.661111113J. Skorupa2.057970LSep 19 · 16:50A. Fomin1.45813611113J. Skorupa2.45111111552LSep 19 · 15:10M. Guzik1.2141111113J. Skorupa3.35116441WSep 17 · 01:45J. Skorupa2.201112104123M. Lewczuk1.618101211102WSep 17 · 24:35J. Skorupa2.0011145113K. Kwiatkowski1.734121181LSep 16 · 23:20J. Skorupa2.631149111A. Fomin1.4491111133
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