TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Artur Zmijewski
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1177117111311411
Michal Guzik
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:52 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 93 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Michal Guzik at 56.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 1–2 Michal Guzik Artur Zmijewski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Guzik beat Zmijewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1498 vs Guzik 1671
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 80% vs Guzik 100%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 70% vs Guzik 90%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski +2 · Guzik +7
Guzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 2.75 / Guzik 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13163738
Zmijewski2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 13 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Guzik1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite76% won 146 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it98% 86 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it90% 108 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeZmijewski1wins
AwayGuzik2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderGuzik leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewski33.3%1 of 3
AwayGuzikn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski3Guzik0n = 3Zmijewski took 3 of 3
S2Zmijewski0Guzik3n = 3Guzik took 3 of 3
S3Zmijewski1Guzik2n = 3Guzik took 2 of 3
S4Zmijewski0Guzik3n = 3Guzik took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricZmijewskiGuzikZ − GBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match37.744.3−6.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 145 vs 160 / 21560%74.4%87 / 145 vs 160 / 215Avg sets wonper match2.22.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikZmijewski 2.75/Guzik 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 20 · 17:45A. Zmijewski341171061M. Guzik4171112113
LAug 27 · 21:45A. Zmijewski32117591M. Guzik4071111113
WAug 27 · 17:45A. Zmijewski47115126133M. Guzik529111011112
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.501111123J. Skorupa2.5067100WSep 20 · 18:30K. Rybak5.003640A. Zmijewski1.141111113LSep 20 · 17:45M. Guzik1.4071112113A. Zmijewski2.751171061WSep 20 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.57116811113Z. Nocun2.2531111672WSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 01:35A. Staniczek3.251091171A. Zmijewski1.3012119113WSep 14 · 23:35J. Cyndera2.108650A. Zmijewski1.601111113LSep 14 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.71119119113A. Zmijewski2.0091181172LSep 14 · 21:10J. Michalik2.15111111113A. Zmijewski1.55661351WSep 14 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.3531060A. Zmijewski1.501112113
M. Guzik10
WSep 20 · 22:35M. Guzik1.1711119113J. Skorupa4.50681191WSep 20 · 20:30M. Guzik1.1711111110113G. Mucha4.5091321292WSep 20 · 18:55M. Guzik1.201111113Z. Nocun4.337440WSep 20 · 17:45M. Guzik1.4071112113A. Zmijewski2.751171061WSep 20 · 16:15M. Guzik1.061111113K. Rybak8.004250WSep 20 · 15:00M. Guzik1.201111113J. Skorupa4.339930WSep 20 · 02:00A. Kubiak3.00561171M. Guzik1.2611119113WSep 20 · 01:10A. Fomin2.40111159102M. Guzik1.50861111123LSep 20 · 24:25M. Guzik1.604390H. Tkaczyk2.201111113WSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik1.2711311113J. Skorupa3.30811351
Upcoming Matches
A. Zmijewski
Sep 20 · 23:45A. Zmijewski1.57Z. Nocun2.25—Sep 21 · 24:35A. Zmijewski1.04K. Rybak9.00—Sep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.40J. Skorupa2.75—Sep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski—M. Baran——Sep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 21 · 17:45A. Zmijewski—M. Lewczuk——Sep 21 · 18:30A. Zmijewski—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski—J. Zelezik——Sep 21 · 21:45A. Zmijewski—M. Lewczuk——Sep 21 · 22:50A. Zmijewski—M. Karpiuk——
M. Guzik
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