TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Artur Zmijewski
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161171210––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 57 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 3–3 Jakub Skorupa Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1487 vs Skorupa 1390
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 80% vs Skorupa 60%
Zmijewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 70% vs Skorupa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski +1 · Skorupa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.50 / Skorupa 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Zmijewski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13163751
Zmijewski1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 59 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Skorupa2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 98 of 297
Down 0–1, comes back16% 27 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeZmijewski3wins
AwaySkorupa3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySkorupa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski2Skorupa4n = 6Skorupa took 4 of 6
S2Zmijewski3Skorupa3n = 6split evenly
S3Zmijewski2Skorupa4n = 6Skorupa took 4 of 6
S4Zmijewski3Skorupa0n = 3Zmijewski took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricZmijewskiSkorupaZ − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.335.0+1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 144 vs 325 / 67459.7%48.2%86 / 144 vs 325 / 674Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiZmijewski 1.50/Skorupa 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 31 · 02:10A. Zmijewski259880J. Skorupa331111113
WAug 30 · 20:05A. Zmijewski4071111113J. Skorupa35118971
WAug 28 · 24:10A. Zmijewski331111113J. Skorupa193880
LAug 27 · 20:30A. Zmijewski29712100J. Skorupa371114123
WAug 6 · 01:25A. Zmijewski507111011113J. Skorupa4311512782
LAug 5 · 19:20A. Zmijewski4111831182J. Skorupa43411116113
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 20 · 18:30K. Rybak5.003640A. Zmijewski1.141111113LSep 20 · 17:45M. Guzik1.4071112113A. Zmijewski2.751171061WSep 20 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.441111113G. Mucha2.633790WSep 20 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.57116811113Z. Nocun2.2531111672WSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 01:35A. Staniczek3.251091171A. Zmijewski1.3012119113WSep 14 · 23:35J. Cyndera2.108650A. Zmijewski1.601111113LSep 14 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.71119119113A. Zmijewski2.0091181172LSep 14 · 21:10J. Michalik2.15111111113A. Zmijewski1.55661351WSep 14 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.3531060A. Zmijewski1.501112113
J. Skorupa10
WSep 20 · 19:20G. Mucha1.5711711872J. Skorupa2.25911811113WSep 20 · 17:20K. Rybak3.507690J. Skorupa1.281111113LSep 20 · 15:00M. Guzik1.201111113J. Skorupa4.339930WSep 20 · 02:20D. Pyrek1.868118131J. Skorupa1.8011911153WSep 20 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk1.40126761J. Skorupa2.75101111113LSep 19 · 23:35A. Kubiak1.66127711113J. Skorupa2.05101111752LSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik1.2711311113J. Skorupa3.30811351WSep 19 · 21:10A. Fomin2.0565110J. Skorupa1.651111133WSep 19 · 20:20D. Pyrek1.86861131J. Skorupa1.8011119113LSep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk1.4211112113J. Skorupa2.558111091
Upcoming Matches
A. Zmijewski
Sep 20 · 21:45A. Zmijewski2.75M. Guzik1.40—Sep 20 · 22:55A. Zmijewski1.36G. Mucha3.00—Sep 20 · 23:45A. Zmijewski1.57Z. Nocun2.25—Sep 21 · 24:35A. Zmijewski1.07K. Rybak5.00—Sep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.50J. Skorupa2.50—Sep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski—M. Baran——Sep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 21 · 17:45A. Zmijewski—M. Lewczuk——Sep 21 · 18:30A. Zmijewski—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski—J. Zelezik——
J. Skorupa
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