TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159895
Played Sep 20Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210611711611––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:35 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1210611711611––
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 35–14 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 14 of their 49 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Tkaczyk beat Skorupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:35What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-14 in 49
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 21 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1641 vs Skorupa 1351
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 289 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Skorupa 40%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 90% vs Skorupa 40%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +3 · Skorupa -2
Tkaczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.40 / Skorupa 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13159895
Tkaczyk1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 398 of 568
Up 2–0, closes it94% 227 of 242
Up 1–0, closes it86% 309 of 361
Skorupa2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back16% 26 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk8wins
AwaySkorupa2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk100%8 of 8
AwaySkorupan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk8Skorupa2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Tkaczyk5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Tkaczyk6Skorupa4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Tkaczyk4Skorupa4n = 8split evenly
S5Tkaczyk4Skorupa1n = 5Tkaczyk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykSkorupaT − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.840.5+3.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime1017 / 1513 vs 321 / 66867.2%48.1%1017 / 1513 vs 321 / 668Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.40/Skorupa 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk3511112113J. Skorupa388111091
WSep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk55139118143J. Skorupa531111811122
WSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk361111143J. Skorupa2796120
WSep 1 · 01:30H. Tkaczyk43111011113J. Skorupa37912791
WAug 31 · 20:05H. Tkaczyk481111510113J. Skorupa4185111252
LAug 28 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk51812813102J. Skorupa5511101111123
WAug 27 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk341112113J. Skorupa2481060
LAug 20 · 23:45H. Tkaczyk419128121J. Skorupa46111011143
WAug 20 · 15:50H. Tkaczyk511161112113J. Skorupa4471181442
WAug 17 · 21:10H. Tkaczyk44118311113J. Skorupa4071111472
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 20 · 02:45A. Fomin1.9011680H. Tkaczyk1.751311113WSep 20 · 24:25M. Guzik1.604390H. Tkaczyk2.201111113WSep 19 · 23:10D. Pyrek2.956370H. Tkaczyk1.361111113WSep 19 · 21:35A. Kubiak2.501071161H. Tkaczyk1.4612117113LSep 19 · 20:45M. Guzik1.681111113H. Tkaczyk2.056990WSep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk1.4211112113J. Skorupa2.558111091WSep 19 · 18:25A. Fomin1.9511137692H. Tkaczyk1.749111111113WSep 19 · 17:10D. Pyrek2.90114761H. Tkaczyk1.3561111113WSep 19 · 15:35A. Kubiak2.50119671H. Tkaczyk1.4671111113WSep 18 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.2212116113A. Staniczek3.701081181
J. Skorupa10
WSep 20 · 02:20D. Pyrek1.868118131J. Skorupa1.8011911153LSep 19 · 23:35A. Kubiak1.66127711113J. Skorupa2.05101111752LSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik1.2711311113J. Skorupa3.30811351WSep 19 · 21:10A. Fomin2.0565110J. Skorupa1.651111133WSep 19 · 20:20D. Pyrek1.86861131J. Skorupa1.8011119113LSep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk1.4211112113J. Skorupa2.558111091LSep 19 · 17:35A. Kubiak1.661111113J. Skorupa2.057970LSep 19 · 16:50A. Fomin1.45813611113J. Skorupa2.45111111552LSep 19 · 15:10M. Guzik1.2141111113J. Skorupa3.35116441WSep 17 · 01:45J. Skorupa2.201112104123M. Lewczuk1.618101211102
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