TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611911––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:22 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKazimierz Rybak above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Skorupa at 67.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 3–7 Jakub Skorupa Kazimierz Rybak has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:22What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Skorupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Skorupa
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1016 vs Skorupa 1375
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 359 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 20% vs Skorupa 40%
Skorupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 10% vs Skorupa 40%
Skorupa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak -4 · Skorupa -2
Rybak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Skorupa) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 3.50 / Skorupa 1.28
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Skorupa)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13163070
Rybak3.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog20% won 53 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back8% 14 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 109
Skorupa1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 153 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it92% 73 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it75% 102 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRybak3wins
AwaySkorupa7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSkorupa leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybak66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkorupa85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S2Rybak5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Rybak3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S4Rybak6Skorupa2n = 8Rybak took 6 of 8
S5Rybak1Skorupa4n = 5Skorupa took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRybakSkorupaR − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.641.7−1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 515 vs 323 / 67223.1%48.1%119 / 515 vs 323 / 672Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaRybak 3.50/Skorupa 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 02:20K. Rybak50615711113J. Skorupa49111311682
WAug 19 · 03:05K. Rybak4211119113J. Skorupa32951171
LAug 18 · 21:05K. Rybak259880J. Skorupa331111113
LAug 6 · 23:10K. Rybak4311681172J. Skorupa48811117113
LAug 6 · 17:20K. Rybak4591111772J. Skorupa40116111113
WJul 31 · 24:20K. Rybak4111118113J. Skorupa33951181
LJul 30 · 20:20K. Rybak47111191152J. Skorupa50136119113
LJun 30 · 23:30K. Rybak257990J. Skorupa331111113
LJun 30 · 19:10K. Rybak411391271J. Skorupa47151110113
LJun 25 · 22:35K. Rybak4797161142J. Skorupa521111145113
K. Rybak10
LSep 20 · 16:15M. Guzik1.061111113K. Rybak8.004250LSep 20 · 15:25K. Rybak4.50811101192G. Mucha1.17119127113LSep 17 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.12811611113K. Rybak4.8511711962LSep 17 · 03:55A. Staniczek1.391121411113K. Rybak2.6541116892WSep 17 · 01:55W. Stechly1.845560K. Rybak1.791111113LSep 17 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.2761111113K. Rybak3.43114481LSep 16 · 23:30A. Krezel1.262011113K. Rybak3.2518550LSep 16 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.1271111123K. Rybak4.851149101LSep 16 · 21:55A. Staniczek1.41119414113K. Rybak2.60911111252LSep 16 · 19:55J. Slawomir1.1511711113K. Rybak4.35811771
J. Skorupa10
LSep 20 · 16:35Z. Nocun1.61111111113J. Skorupa2.20513551LSep 20 · 15:00M. Guzik1.201111113J. Skorupa4.339930WSep 20 · 02:20D. Pyrek1.868118131J. Skorupa1.8011911153WSep 20 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk1.40126761J. Skorupa2.75101111113LSep 19 · 23:35A. Kubiak1.66127711113J. Skorupa2.05101111752LSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik1.2711311113J. Skorupa3.30811351WSep 19 · 21:10A. Fomin2.0565110J. Skorupa1.651111133WSep 19 · 20:20D. Pyrek1.86861131J. Skorupa1.8011119113LSep 19 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk1.4211112113J. Skorupa2.558111091LSep 19 · 17:35A. Kubiak1.661111113J. Skorupa2.057970
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