TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145810
Played Sep 18Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311117511118––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:03 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 62.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 10–6 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Mucha beat Nocun 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Nocun
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1432 vs Mucha 1368
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 20% vs Mucha 40%
Mucha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 40% vs Mucha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +1 · Mucha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.57 / Mucha 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Nocun)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13145810
Nocun1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 325 of 492
Up 2–0, closes it93% 156 of 167
Up 1–0, closes it85% 234 of 275
Mucha2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 45 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun6wins
AwayMucha4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun55.6%5 of 9
AwayMuchan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun9Mucha1n = 10Nocun took 9 of 10
S2Nocun7Mucha3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Nocun4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S4Nocun5Mucha3n = 8Nocun took 5 of 8
S5Nocun1Mucha4n = 5Mucha took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunMuchaN − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.539.2+3.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime679 / 1137 vs 146 / 29259.7%50%679 / 1137 vs 146 / 292Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.57/Mucha 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun4013115113G. Mucha371171181
LSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun45123711122G. Mucha551011119143
WSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun381111163G. Mucha2446140
LSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun4511116892G. Mucha44831111113
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun4211115962G. Mucha46581111113
LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun50121171192G. Mucha531081113113
WAug 12 · 21:20Z. Nocun49116813113G. Mucha47911111152
WAug 12 · 15:25Z. Nocun4111811113G. Mucha30411691
WAug 2 · 21:45Z. Nocun4071111113G. Mucha33119671
WAug 2 · 17:45Z. Nocun351113113G. Mucha2351170
Z. Nocun10
WSep 18 · 24:35M. Brunner2.7596131152Z. Nocun1.401111116113LSep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.20117116113Z. Nocun1.6171171152LSep 17 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.83681151K. Gudzik1.8311116113LSep 17 · 21:45Z. Nocun4.0071490M. Guzik1.221116113LSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.53123711122G. Mucha2.381011119143WSep 17 · 18:30M. Brunner2.637740Z. Nocun1.441111113LSep 17 · 17:45M. Guzik1.221111113Z. Nocun4.005720WSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.731111614113K. Gudzik2.0035111682LSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.531171161M. Baran2.3881113113WSep 17 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.12811611113K. Rybak4.8511711962
G. Mucha10
LSep 18 · 01:25K. Gudzik1.831111113G. Mucha1.834980WSep 17 · 23:20M. Brunner3.25114461G. Mucha1.3371111113LSep 17 · 22:35M. Guzik1.2051111113G. Mucha4.33117661LSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.53123711122G. Mucha2.381011119143LSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.91131111113G. Mucha1.801151381WSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113WSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153LSep 17 · 15:00M. Guzik1.2011117113G. Mucha4.33671181LSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140
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