TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145858
Played Sep 18Finished
Krystian Gudzik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119118––––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrystian Gudzik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Gudzik above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 54 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Krystian Gudzik at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Gudzik 7–3 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Gudzik beat Mucha 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:24What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Gudzik
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gudzik 1433 vs Mucha 1366
Gudzik
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gudzik 60% vs Mucha 40%
Gudzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gudzik 60% vs Mucha 40%
Gudzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gudzik -1 · Mucha +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gudzik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGudzik 1.83 / Mucha 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gudzik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13145858
Gudzik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Mucha1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGudzik7wins
AwayMucha3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGudzik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGudzik85.7%6 of 7
AwayMucha66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gudzik7Mucha3n = 10Gudzik took 7 of 10
S2Gudzik7Mucha3n = 10Gudzik took 7 of 10
S3Gudzik6Mucha4n = 10Gudzik took 6 of 10
S4Gudzik3Mucha2n = 5Gudzik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGudzikMuchaG − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.533.5+5.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGudzikMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 129 vs 146 / 29151.9%50.2%67 / 129 vs 146 / 291Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GudzikGudzik 1.83/Mucha 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gudzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gudzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 01:25K. Gudzik331111113G. Mucha214980
WSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik46131111113G. Mucha371151381
LSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik371011791G. Mucha4012611113
WSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik4011117113G. Mucha28531191
LSep 12 · 22:10K. Gudzik4011611932G. Mucha49911711113
LSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik2810990G. Mucha341211113
WAug 12 · 22:55K. Gudzik361213113G. Mucha29101180
WAug 12 · 16:55K. Gudzik391116123G. Mucha31714100
WAug 10 · 02:10K. Gudzik361114113G. Mucha2551280
WAug 9 · 20:05K. Gudzik50891111113G. Mucha4111115772
K. Gudzik10
WSep 18 · 02:35M. Baran1.91961281K. Gudzik1.80111110113LSep 18 · 24:10M. Guzik1.4111911113K. Gudzik2.60911841WSep 17 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.83681151K. Gudzik1.8311116113WSep 17 · 21:20M. Brunner2.38101111482K. Gudzik1.53128911113LSep 17 · 20:30M. Guzik1.28411114113K. Gudzik3.5011851182WSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.91131111113G. Mucha1.801151381WSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran3.25515971K. Gudzik1.33111311113LSep 17 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.731111614113K. Gudzik2.0035111682WSep 17 · 15:25M. Brunner2.00811681K. Gudzik1.7311611113LSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760
G. Mucha10
LSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5713115113G. Mucha2.251171181WSep 17 · 23:20M. Brunner3.25114461G. Mucha1.3371111113LSep 17 · 22:35M. Guzik1.2051111113G. Mucha4.33117661LSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.53123711122G. Mucha2.381011119143LSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.91131111113G. Mucha1.801151381WSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113WSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153LSep 17 · 15:00M. Guzik1.2011117113G. Mucha4.33671181LSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140
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