TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81112101181416911
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 14-16
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 110 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 54.0%
110 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 36–25 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 25 of their 61 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Nocun beat Skorupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-25 in 61
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 11 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1417 vs Skorupa 1382
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Skorupa 40%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 50% vs Skorupa 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +1 · Skorupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.61 / Skorupa 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Nocun)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13163745
Nocun1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 323 of 490
Up 2–0, closes it94% 158 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it85% 235 of 278
Skorupa2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 98 of 297
Down 0–1, comes back16% 27 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun6wins
AwaySkorupa4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%5 of 5
AwaySkorupa80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Nocun7Skorupa3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Nocun3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S4Nocun7Skorupa2n = 9Nocun took 7 of 9
S5Nocun1Skorupa2n = 3Skorupa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunSkorupaN − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.339.9+2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime683 / 1145 vs 326 / 67659.7%48.2%683 / 1145 vs 326 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.61/Skorupa 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 21:00Z. Nocun54812111492J. Skorupa561110816113
WSep 20 · 16:35Z. Nocun44111111113J. Skorupa28513551
LSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun2510870J. Skorupa341211113
WSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun43111110113J. Skorupa37891281
LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun30514651J. Skorupa45111211113
WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun4111118113J. Skorupa26531171
WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun4411139113J. Skorupa398111191
WSep 3 · 22:40Z. Nocun4781611123J. Skorupa4111146101
WSep 2 · 23:30Z. Nocun491110611113J. Skorupa4571211872
LSep 2 · 19:10Z. Nocun4691181172J. Skorupa48117118113
Z. Nocun10
WSep 20 · 22:10Z. Nocun1.2241412113K. Rybak4.0011121081WSep 20 · 19:40K. Rybak3.75511471Z. Nocun1.2511811113LSep 20 · 18:55M. Guzik1.201111113Z. Nocun4.337440WSep 20 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.6711115113G. Mucha2.10981191WSep 20 · 16:35Z. Nocun1.61111111113J. Skorupa2.20513551LSep 20 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.57116811113Z. Nocun2.2531111672WSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5713115113G. Mucha2.251171181WSep 18 · 24:35M. Brunner2.7596131152Z. Nocun1.401111116113LSep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.20117116113Z. Nocun1.6171171152LSep 17 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.83681151K. Gudzik1.8311116113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 20 · 22:35M. Guzik1.1711119113J. Skorupa4.50681191LSep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.501111123J. Skorupa2.5067100WSep 20 · 19:20G. Mucha1.5711711872J. Skorupa2.25911811113WSep 20 · 17:20K. Rybak3.507690J. Skorupa1.281111113LSep 20 · 16:35Z. Nocun1.61111111113J. Skorupa2.20513551LSep 20 · 15:00M. Guzik1.201111113J. Skorupa4.339930WSep 20 · 02:20D. Pyrek1.868118131J. Skorupa1.8011911153WSep 20 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk1.40126761J. Skorupa2.75101111113LSep 19 · 23:35A. Kubiak1.66127711113J. Skorupa2.05101111752LSep 19 · 22:50M. Guzik1.2711311113J. Skorupa3.30811351
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