TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Artur Zmijewski
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51112108111113––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:50 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 81 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 61.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 4–3 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Zmijewski beat Skorupa 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:50What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zmijewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1499 vs Skorupa 1353
Zmijewski
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 60% vs Skorupa 20%
Zmijewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 70% vs Skorupa 40%
Zmijewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski +1 · Skorupa -3
Skorupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.40 / Skorupa 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Zmijewski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13164800
Zmijewski1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite66% won 59 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Skorupa2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 98 of 297
Down 0–1, comes back16% 27 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZmijewski4wins
AwaySkorupa3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderZmijewski leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewski66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkorupa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski3Skorupa4n = 7Skorupa took 4 of 7
S2Zmijewski4Skorupa3n = 7Zmijewski took 4 of 7
S3Zmijewski3Skorupa4n = 7Skorupa took 4 of 7
S4Zmijewski3Skorupa0n = 3Zmijewski took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricZmijewskiSkorupaZ − SBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match36.033.3+2.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 149 vs 326 / 67959.7%48%89 / 149 vs 326 / 679Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiZmijewski 1.40/Skorupa 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski341111123J. Skorupa2367100
LAug 31 · 02:10A. Zmijewski259880J. Skorupa331111113
WAug 30 · 20:05A. Zmijewski4071111113J. Skorupa35118971
WAug 28 · 24:10A. Zmijewski331111113J. Skorupa193880
LAug 27 · 20:30A. Zmijewski29712100J. Skorupa371114123
WAug 6 · 01:25A. Zmijewski507111011113J. Skorupa4311512782
LAug 5 · 19:20A. Zmijewski4111831182J. Skorupa43411116113
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 21 · 24:35K. Rybak9.007190A. Zmijewski1.041111113LSep 20 · 23:45Z. Nocun2.25127115113A. Zmijewski1.57101181172WSep 20 · 22:55A. Zmijewski1.3611136173G. Mucha3.0071111151LSep 20 · 21:45A. Zmijewski2.7511771342M. Guzik1.407111111113WSep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.501111123J. Skorupa2.5067100WSep 20 · 18:30K. Rybak5.003640A. Zmijewski1.141111113LSep 20 · 17:45M. Guzik1.4071112113A. Zmijewski2.751171061WSep 20 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.441111113G. Mucha2.633790WSep 20 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.57116811113Z. Nocun2.2531111672WSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 21 · 01:25G. Mucha1.6112811113J. Skorupa2.201011861LSep 20 · 23:20K. Rybak4.00111298123J. Skorupa1.229101111102LSep 20 · 22:35M. Guzik1.1711119113J. Skorupa4.50681191WSep 20 · 21:00Z. Nocun1.61812111492J. Skorupa2.201110816113LSep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.501111123J. Skorupa2.5067100WSep 20 · 19:20G. Mucha1.5311711872J. Skorupa2.38911811113WSep 20 · 17:20K. Rybak3.507690J. Skorupa1.281111113LSep 20 · 16:35Z. Nocun1.61111111113J. Skorupa2.20513551LSep 20 · 15:00M. Guzik1.201111113J. Skorupa4.339930WSep 20 · 02:20D. Pyrek1.868118131J. Skorupa1.8011911153
Upcoming Matches
A. Zmijewski
Sep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski—M. Baran——Sep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 21 · 17:45A. Zmijewski—M. Lewczuk——Sep 21 · 18:30A. Zmijewski—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski—J. Zelezik——Sep 21 · 21:45A. Zmijewski—M. Lewczuk——Sep 21 · 22:50A. Zmijewski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 21 · 23:30A. Zmijewski—M. Baran——Sep 22 · 24:10A. Zmijewski—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 22 · 01:30A. Zmijewski—J. Zelezik——
J. Skorupa
Nothing scheduled
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