TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191146114111210
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:19 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 89 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 59.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 5–10 Jacek Zelezik Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Zelezik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Zelezik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1425 vs Zelezik 1479
Zelezik
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 60% vs Zelezik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 30% vs Zelezik 50%
Zelezik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -1 · Zelezik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 2.50 / Zelezik 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Zelezik)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13168369
Kwiatkowski2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 67 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Zelezik1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 186 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it96% 107 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it81% 143 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski3wins
AwayZelezik7wins
Zelezik leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski37.5%3 of 8
AwayZelezikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski8Zelezik2n = 10Kwiatkowski took 8 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski4Zelezik6n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski3Zelezik7n = 10Zelezik took 7 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski0Zelezik6n = 6Zelezik took 6 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiZelezikK − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match33.435.0−1.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 264 vs 386 / 71343.2%54.1%114 / 264 vs 386 / 713Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikKwiatkowski 2.50/Zelezik 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski331111113J. Zelezik229670
LSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski33119851J. Zelezik4071111113
WAug 26 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski331111113J. Zelezik259970
LAug 25 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski28113771J. Zelezik4291111113
LAug 19 · 22:35K. Kwiatkowski305113111J. Zelezik3811311133
WAug 19 · 15:00K. Kwiatkowski331111113J. Zelezik142840
LAug 18 · 23:30K. Kwiatkowski401188131J. Zelezik4471111153
LAug 18 · 19:10K. Kwiatkowski33116791J. Zelezik3961111113
LJul 30 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski2371060J. Zelezik341112113
LJul 30 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski4813161091J. Zelezik52111812113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 21 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski2.2091111113A. Zmijewski1.61116561LSep 21 · 16:15M. Lewczuk2.10111164123K. Kwiatkowski1.67661111102WSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski1.57111116113M. Karpiuk2.25791881WSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.611311113J. Michalik2.2011370LSep 18 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski1.6574120A. Krezel2.101111143WSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192LSep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.50139118102A. Staniczek2.401111811123LSep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski2.751011461D. Molenda1.3712811113LSep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.751171110142A. Krezel1.90911812163
J. Zelezik10
LSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690WSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1013117572J. Zelezik1.671151111113WSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113WSep 18 · 03:55A. Staniczek3.305850J. Zelezik1.211111113LSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 18 · 01:10J. Michalik2.44611126143J. Zelezik1.451151011122LSep 17 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.671111113J. Zelezik1.998970LSep 17 · 22:40A. Krezel1.8571111113J. Zelezik1.80115551WSep 17 · 21:55A. Staniczek3.3028100J. Zelezik1.261111123WSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.53M. Baran2.38—Sep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.57M. Karpiuk2.25—Sep 21 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski1.53M. Baran2.38—Sep 21 · 23:10K. Kwiatkowski2.38J. Zelezik1.53—Sep 22 · 24:10K. Kwiatkowski2.20A. Zmijewski1.61—Sep 22 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski1.73M. Lewczuk2.00—Sep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 22 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Baran——Sep 22 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—K. Delikatny——
J. Zelezik
Sep 21 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.33M. Karpiuk3.25—Sep 21 · 20:05J. Zelezik1.80A. Zmijewski1.91—Sep 21 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.53M. Baran2.38—Sep 21 · 22:30J. Zelezik1.61M. Lewczuk2.20—Sep 21 · 23:10J. Zelezik1.53K. Kwiatkowski2.38—Sep 22 · 24:50J. Zelezik1.33M. Karpiuk3.25—Sep 22 · 01:30J. Zelezik1.80A. Zmijewski1.91—
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